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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 11:37:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK June manufacturing PMI below forecast at 54.8 vs 55.6 May - sources Thursday, July 1, 2004 8:49:57 AM LONDON (AFX) - Manufacturing sector activity in the UK fell below expectations to 54.8 in June from 55.6 in May, according to market sources Consensus estimates had predicted a small rise to 56.0 in the headline index released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a sub-50 figure indicates contraction fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 11:40:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Euro zone June manufacturing PMI falls to 54.4 vs 54.7 in May - sources Thursday, July 1, 2004 8:19:36 AM LONDON (AFX) - The Euro zone manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index fell below expectations to a seasonally adjusted 54.4 in June from 54.7 in May, according to market sources Consensus estimates had predicted a small rise to 55.2 The euro zone PMI is jointly produced by Reuters and NTC Research A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests that it is generally contracting fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 11:42:36 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

German May retail sales down real 1.7 pct vs April, down 5.2 pct yr-on-yr Thursday, July 1, 2004 6:15:28 AM WIESBADEN, Germany (AFX) - German retail sales in May were down 1.7 pct in real terms from April, and were down a real 5.2 pct compared with the same month a year earlier, according to provisional figures from the Federal Statistics Office The office said May this year had two fewer shopping days compared to the same month a year ago. The results were based on data from six federal states, in which some 81 pct of all German retail sales take place On a nominal basis, May retail sales fell 1.5 pct month-on-month, and fell 4.8 pct year-on-year, the Office said In the first five months of this year, retail sales fell a real 1.8 pct from the comparable period in 2003, and fell a nominal 2.0 pct, the Office said fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 11:46:52 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bank of England chief says world should expect further rate rises - report Thursday, July 1, 2004 1:11:58 AM LONDON (AFX) - The world economy is set on a new course of gradually higher interest rates, Bank of England governor Mervyn King said, also warning that UK rates could rise again soon Interest rates in the UK, which have been hiked four times in seven months to a current level of 4.50 pct, could be affected by continued steep rises in house prices around the country, King told the Financial Times His comments come shortly after the US Federal Reserve raised its own interest rates from a 1958 low of 1.00 pct to 1.25 pct, the first increase in four years "It's a synchronised world recovery. The world interest rate cycle has turned," King told the paper "The situation does look really rather different (from a year ago)," he said "And it's a much more favourable background, clearly, against which to set (economic) policy. But it's one in which it's not surprising that around the world people see interest rates gently rising." King said that he had been "surprised" by recent steep rises in house prices in the UK, which have been seen as helping to fuel a potentially inflationary consumer spending boom "House prices in the last two or three months have been very important to our judgements, because they have represented some of the most important pieces of news," he said The housing market "has been one of the factors underpinning buoyancy in consumer spending, and that's affected our judgement about where total demand is going, and hence inflation," King said fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 11:50:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japan refrains from forex intervention for third straight month Wednesday, June 30, 2004 11:37:57 PM TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Japan has refrained from official intervention in foreign exchange trading for the third consecutive month, the finance ministry said The ministry said in a monthly report late Wednesday that Japanese monetary authorities stayed out of the market from May 28 to June 28, as it did in the two previous months Japan last stepped into the market on March 17 to stem a rapid rise in the yen against the dollar, which hurts exporters by making their goods less price competitive A higher yen also reduces their repatriated overseas earnings and at the time was feared to jeopardize Japan's export-led economic recovery Japan spent more than 35 trln yen in the 15 months from January 2003, including 15.2 trln yen in the first three months of 2004, to soften the yen against the dollar through intervention The turnaround in foreign exchange intervention came after the dollar's rebound on improving prospects for the US economy and US criticism against Japan's continued massive intervention The dollar, which plunged into the 103-yen range in late March for the first time in nearly four years, has been relatively stable in recent sessions moving in a range of 107-111 yen It stood at 108.70 yen late Wednesday in Tokyo fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 11:55:06 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Trichet says euro zone growth continued in Q2 but oil prices still pose risk Thursday, July 1, 2004 1:35:34 PM FRANKFURT (AFX) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said economic indicators showed euro zone growth has continued in the second quarter but oil prices still pose a risk to growth and price stability In his opening remarks at a news conference after the ECB announced it is keeping interest rates unchanged, Trichet said "the outlook still remains in line with price stability over the medium term" but noted that "somewhat stronger inflationary pressure" is likely to persist over the short term The latest data confirm that economic recovery in the euro area is "continuing" after the region posted 0.6 pct real GDP growth in the first quarter "All in all, the latest indicators of output and expenditure, as well as the most recent survey data, remain consistent with ongoing growth in real activity during the second quarter," he said He said that although the downside risks have "declined somewhat", oil prices remain at "high levels and may... dampen growth" "Over the short term, oil prices continue to exert upward pressure on the general price level," he said fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 11:56:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

ECB rates unchanged Thursday, July 1, 2004 12:03:51 PM FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said it left its leading interest rates unchanged at today's governing council meeting Main refinancing operations will continue to be conducted as variable rate tenders with a minimum bid rate of 2.00 pct The deposit rate remains at 1.00 pct and the rate on the marginal lending facility at 3.00 pct The Federal Reserve last night raised US interest rates for the first time in four years, lifting its Fed funds target to 1.25 pct from the 46-year low of 1.00 pct in place over the past year But the slow pace of the euro zone recovery means that the ECB is in no rush to follow other central banks in tightening monetary policy, economists said fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 12:04:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

ISM numbers briefing.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 12:06:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Construction Outlays Rise 0.3 Pct. in May money.excite.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 12:08:46 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Ford Motor Company Reports June U.S. Sales Thursday July 1, 12:00 pm ET * Ford's June U.S. sales totaled 287,381, down 8 percent. * Ford F-Series sales totaled 74,935, up 1 percent. * Ford Escape sets June sales record as sales rise 11 percent to 16,314. * Ford Econoline van sales climb 21 percent, as business investment remains strong. * Volvo sets first half sales record as new S40 attracts attention from younger buyers. DEARBORN, Mich., July 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- U.S. customers purchased or leased 287,381 cars and trucks from Ford, Mercury, Lincoln, Jaguar, Volvo, and Land Rover dealers in June, down 8 percent compared with a year ago. Sales of passenger cars were 92,580, down 17 percent and trucks were 194,801, down 3 percent. Year-to-date through June, the company's sales were 1.7 million, down 3 percent compared with the same period a year ago. Sales of trucks were 1.1 million, up 1 percent, and sales of passenger cars were 0.6 million, down 11 percent. Ford F-Series, America's best-selling vehicle, posted sales of 74,935, up 1 percent. June was the tenth month in a row of higher F-Series sales coinciding with the introduction of the new F-150 model. A new Super Duty model, built at Ford's Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville, will debut later this summer. The Ford Escape, America's best-selling small sport utility vehicle, set another monthly record as June sales increased 11 percent to 16,314. Production of the Escape hybrid will begin in August at Ford's Kansas City Assembly Plant in Claycomo, Missouri. Business investment has made an important contribution to the current economic recovery and helped to increase sales of Ford's Econoline -- America's best-selling full-size van. In June, Econoline sales increased 21 percent to 16,963. Although Volvo's June sales were down 3 percent, Volvo set a first half record as XC90 sales remained strong and the new S40 sedan gained traction in the U.S. market from younger buyers. The new V50 wagon has started to arrive at Volvo retailers. more info here: biz.yahoo.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (8554)	7/1/2004 2:10:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Look at this stupidity A good deal if you are Iraq. IMF says could provide aid to Iraq if it pays back debt first Thursday, July 1, 2004 5:58:36 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) - The International Monetary Fund said it has a number of means at its disposal to support Iraq now that power has been transferred to an interim government, to be granted under the condition that the country pays its arrears Spokesman Thomas Dawson said that following the IMF's official recognition of the Iraqi government "which should be imminent, the fund could appoint a financial aide attached to the assistance committee it sends to countries that are emerging from a conflict", but Iraq will have to settle its IMF debt first The country owes the IMF some 80 mln usd, Dawson said, adding that the assistance funds for Iraq could amount to 850 mln usd ========================================================== Hmmm Let's see the IMF will loan Iraq 850 million if it first pays back 80 million. Why don't they just loan Iraq 770 million and call it a day? Mish