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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (16120)	7/2/2004 11:18:48 AM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

Thanks ild.

To: ild who wrote (16120)	7/2/2004 12:03:40 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<this should be no surprise. the only surprise is why it took so long to get decisively weaker data such as the recent plunge in retail sales and today's pay-rolls inventions. in all likelihood this is the BEGINNING of the consumer recession, and if this assumption should prove correct, it will be much much worse than the business recession that preceded it.> It now takes a credit expansion equivalent to 25% of US GDP simply to stop the US economy from sliding into an unavoidable real economic recession. Your point is well-taken, however. There are some people who would encounter great difficulties servicing their existing debts with an 0.25% rise in Fed Funds. There are many more who would cancel borrowing plans. There are even more who will borrow less than they would like to. All this will lead to businesses not making their expected sales. Once this process begins, a slowly accelerating economic contraction arrives. Greenspan is face to face with the real US economic recession which all his monetary and credit finagles were supposed to overcome. That recession will accelerate.

To: ild who wrote (16120)	7/2/2004 12:47:42 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Jul 02 2004 11:18 trotsky (@the draft) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved BOTH parties ( which really are ONE party if you think about it ) are in favor of the draft. expansion of the welfare/warfare state is their primary mission after all, and creating an army of state slaves via the draft is a perfectly logical step for this program. so don't have any illusions that you can vote 'against' the draft. however, rest assured the Washington robber barons will create numerous loopholes in order to exempt their OWN children from the 'dulce et decorum est pro patria mori' department. so there will without a doubt be opportunities to dodge the draft. Date: Fri Jul 02 2004 11:03 trotsky (Wooly, 10:36) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved absolutely. i also expect a continuing very uneven distribution of price declines and price rises. but i do expect the PPI and CPI aggregate price measures to slip into outright, mild deflation within the next few years. i have definitely adopted a view that is not in sync with either that of the outright inflationists or the extreme deflationists like e.g. Prechter. but if i were a central banker, my assessment of the 'balance of risks' would differ markedly from Greenspan's most recent take. i still think the evidence favors a deflationary outcome. of course, i personally don't think deflation is 'bad'. it's only bad for people up to their eyeballs in debt, and it's bad from the PoV of fiat money printing central. for the rest of us, what can be 'bad' about things getting CHEAPER? the exact opposite is true...we should root for deflation, the more the better.