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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (587741)	7/5/2004 9:12:13 AM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

highly unlikely. Recession began in March; attacks sealed it, group says Ken Moritsugu Knight Ridder Newspapers November 30, 2001-- WASHINGTON - Sept. 11 terrorist attacks helped drive the U.S. economy into recession, ending the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, a group of leading economists said Monday. The assessment by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recognized authority on U.S. recessions and expansions, made official what many economic forecasters have been predicting for at least a month. The NBER said the recession began last March, but it wasn't clear that the slowdown had evolved into a full-fledged recession until data came in for the month of October. The economic fallout from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks may have made the difference. "Before the attacks, it is possible that the decline would have been too mild to qualify," the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee said. "The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may have been an important factor in turning the episode into a recession."

To: Neocon who wrote (587741)	7/6/2004 6:59:15 PM
From: Steve Dietrich	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

<<It is likely enough that Bush caused the recession of his term by raising taxes,>> If by likely you mean impossible then i agree. The recession started before the tax increases were agreed to and long before they became effective. <<Furthermore, the "Clinton Economy" did not truly take off until the Republican Congress lowered taxes in '97>> This is also wrong. If you go to cbo.gov and take a look at their historical budget data you can see revenue started to take off in '92, not '97. <<So yes, I am contending that it is at least possible that the "revenue enhancements" lowered revenue.>> Again, how 'bout some proof? Reagan cut taxes and revenue dropped sharply. It didn't recover to pre-tax cut levels for two years. After that Reagan raised taxes, a lot: nationalreview.com The only problem with this analysis is that it is historically inaccurate. Reagan may have resisted calls for tax increases, but he ultimately supported them. In 1982 alone, he signed into law not one but two major tax increases. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) raised taxes by $37.5 billion per year and the Highway Revenue Act raised the gasoline tax by another $3.3 billion. According to a recent Treasury Department study, TEFRA alone raised taxes by almost 1 percent of the gross domestic product, making it the largest peacetime tax increase in American history. An increase of similar magnitude today would raise more than $100 billion per year. In 1983, Reagan signed legislation raising the Social Security tax rate. This is a tax increase that lives with us still, since it initiated automatic increases in the taxable wage base. As a consequence, those with moderately high earnings see their payroll taxes rise every single year. In 1984, Reagan signed another big tax increase in the Deficit Reduction Act. This raised taxes by $18 billion per year or 0.4 percent of GDP. A similar-sized tax increase today would be about $44 billion. The Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 raised taxes yet again. Even the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which was designed to be revenue-neutral, contained a net tax increase in its first 2 years. And the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 raised taxes still more. The year 1988 appears to be the only year of the Reagan presidency, other than the first, in which taxes were not raised legislatively. Of course, previous tax increases remained in effect. According to a table in the 1990 budget, the net effect of all these tax increases was to raise taxes by $164 billion in 1992, or 2.6 percent of GDP. This is equivalent to almost $300 billion in today's economy. Steve Dietrich