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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16176)	7/5/2004 1:09:07 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Respond to of 110194

JW, RE: "the USA must return its mfg base" Agree 100%...an epic mistake(on multiple fronts) to think that "all is well" as manufacturing leaves the U.S. Getting it back will most likely be exceedingly difficult IMHO DB

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16176)	7/5/2004 1:39:31 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

yes you missed - see an historic chart not peaks in the UDX

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16176)	7/6/2004 2:27:24 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

JW, I will try to be cheerful and upbeat. I am figuring that as long as the YEN is effectively tagged to the USD, the RMB will be practically bolted to the same USD. As long as the above is true, manufacturing will continue to vacate USA, along with genuine vitality, even as the YEN masters continue to finance USA so that the USA can buy more from YEN and RMB worlds, until it is not true. The difference between Japan and China is that Japan can print hard YEN to buy solid USD, whereas China must make real widgets to buy conceptual USD, and then must spend the idea of USD on hard stuff and solid wares to make things with, all because poor China cannot afford to keep rich YEN or wealthy USD in the vault. The logical question is whether Japan will bleed out all savings before the USA cash in all manufacturing. As the trend truth gets progressively more true, stuff will be priced higher given the higher nominal input costs, even as manufacturing continue to leave USA, Japan and European shores due to faster still rising nominal costs, and as currencies grind against other currencies. And if RMB is de-pegged from the USD but not anchored to a basket of currencies, RMB will devalue, accelerating the journey towards TeoTwawKi. And even if RMB is pinned to a basket of currencies, the exit of manufacturing from the basket nations will continue, all leading to equalization / reversion to the mean and nasty. All this is simply because it is time the world flipped around, correcting a 300 year one-way trend. The railroad is winding, journey long, experience could be harsh, and there is no exit ramp. The Indian locomotive may travel on the same rail, and if so, even more interesting. In such an environment, the non-global investors may suffer a disadvantage, getting whacked after being knocked about, in a cubby hole corner of the world. In such an environment, the global investor may die of multiple wounds faster, getting cut in one market and suffering a slice in another. If so, the dance steps one must make must not simply be just the right moves, but also properly choreographed sequence of fluid motion ... tough to do, especially when one is getting pummeled, knocked about, cut, and sliced. Even tougher to do if done against the wind of rising interest rate while thirsty and parched on lack of true capital from savings. Impossible, almost, if while one is gushing life-force from debt-ly wounds. Alternatively, shutting down global trade will get us to TeoTwawKi faster still. Optionally, a global resource conflict will get us to TeoTwawKi fastest of all nasty means. Here we come, global equalization of cost and revenue, leading to somewhere between a Mercedes in every garage and a bicycle against every wall. Recommendation: accumulate gold, and for fun, perhaps a bit of the empire's gold, that of the 1000 year empire with monetary discipline ... solidus byzantinecoins.com Chugs, Jay

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (16176)	7/6/2004 8:00:35 PM
From: BEEF JERKEY	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I think one of the things putting upward pressure on the price of oil (in US $$$$) has been the relative weakness of the US dollar. This makes the current account and trade balance problems somewhat nightmarish for those hoping to do something about it. Letting the dollar weaken does not correct the trade balance if the price of oil goes up in US dollars as this occurs. IMO the US dollar has to collapse under the weight of the current account imbalance. So many imbalances have to correct themselves - the huge consumption by the US of the world's oil being just one.