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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (16213)	7/6/2004 12:51:32 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I wrote some (roughly third to a half of a normal position) Sept puts when it was up at 2.73. You will recall my mention of the USDA acres planted number being released on 6/30? Well although it was well telegraphed, the market perceived it as bearish. I have used the break to go straight long (another third to half: meaning I could go ultra aggressive even more, if I got a free look, or an opening) the Dec futures, avg cost about 2.60. The bet is pretty straightforward IMO: The "playbook" is currently pricing in a perfect crop. Crop conditions, scroll down to corn: ncga.aghost.net Yet the underlying inventory situation is critical, extremely low. Any shift of perception in the former will be bullish.