Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (51441)	7/8/2004 6:58:32 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Natural gas and Canroys - I was expecting a hotter summer and a larger price run up, leading to natural and obvious exits for most of my NG investments. Now I might take a little off the table (10-15%) from NG and Canroy. On the E&P side, I will be moving from companies that have had a big move, like CRK, ROYL (sold both) to companies starting to move, like CHK, XEC (bought both recently) The E&P side is more of a stock picker's market. I look at what Ed Adjootian likes, and others on the Boom BoomRoom thread. There is a large part of my royalty trust position that I am begining to see as a multi-year core holding. I may sit on this a LONG time, especially in taxable accounts where I have a pretty taxable gain but I am recieving good tax advantage dividends. It would take a very good opportunity to make me sell much of an appreciated roylaty trust, and pay 20% federal and 9% California tax on the capital gain.... ********** I'm still holding way too much energy related stocks. Looks like there will be another run up in energy prices, with hot weather in the US, Nigeria strike, Russia games, Venezuela recall, Iraqi actions, and worldwide economic growth. I am looking for signs of a peak to sell, since most of the above items will reverse of go neutral - a warm winter in North AMerica is very likely, especially the start of winter. This will clobber gas prices. Nigeria and Venezuela likely to be fixed, Iraqi - who knows ? worldwide growth likely to slow some. A Hurricane heading into the Gulf of Mexico would be likely to mark a peak, also oil hitting say $45 a barrel, or natural gas getting to $8.00 . There is a lot of drilling going on, and it is increasing a little. I might cut my E&P positions about 40-60%, and royalty trust maybe 20% if I see a peak and a natural exit. **** What to buy ? Miscellanous individual stocks - RRI utility, ALCO (land company), WEBX video conferencing, maybe some European country funds, Japan funds. See Ed on GMXR - Message 20291677