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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (53317)	7/8/2004 12:15:52 PM
From: Neeka	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793748

Kerry Fails to Get Lift From Edwards' Pick, Zogby Poll Shows July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic candidate John Kerry's standing against President George W. Bush didn't improve following his pick of North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate July 6, according to a Zogby International poll. Forty-eight percent of 1,008 likely voters polled by Zogby from July 6-7 supported Kerry and Edwards and 46 percent back Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. The two percentage-point margin is within the poll's 3.1 percentage point margin of error and matches the two point spread in a Zogby poll taken June 2-5. Other polls taken after Kerry's July 6 announcement show the Democrat gaining popularity in a race that is still in a statistical dead heat. A CBS poll found a Kerry-Edwards ticket would draw the support of 49 percent of voters if the election were held now, compared with 44 percent for Bush-Cheney, within the survey's margin of error. In a June 23-27 poll of the same voters, Kerry drew 45 percent support to Bush's 44 percent. ``This is not a big bounce electorate,'' pollster John Zogby said in a statement. ``We are a nation that is split down the middle, polarized and hardened.'' A day before Kerry's announcement, Bush campaign chief strategist Matthew Dowd predicted the Kerry-Edwards ticket could enjoy a 15 percentage point margin over Bush-Cheney following the July 26-29 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Kerry, 60, is a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts who beat out Edwards this year in Democratic primaries to win the most pledged delegates. Edwards, 51, spent two decades as a trial lawyer before being elected to the Senate in 1998. Age Differences The poll by Utica, New York-based Zogby found voters 18-29 years of age backed Kerry-Edwards over Bush-Cheney by 59 percent to 37 percent; voters 65 and older backed Kerry-Edwards 49 percent to 46 percent and singles backed the Democratic ticket over Bush-Cheney by 62 percent to 26 percent. The Republican ticket is backed by voters 50 to 64 years old 49 percent to 46 percent and singles backed the Democratic ticket over Bush-Cheney by 62 percent to 26 percent. The Republican ticket is backed by voters 50 to 64 years old 49 percent to 46 percent for Kerry-Edwards; men back Bush-Cheney over Kerry-Edwards 50 percent to 43 percent and 53 percent of married couples back Bush-Cheney while 42 percent back Kerry- Edwards. To win the presidency, a candidate must gain majorities in enough states to collect at least 270 Electoral College votes, which are apportioned among states based on population. That tally, rather than the national vote totals reflected in polls, determines the election winner. A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush, 58, ahead in 20 states, including Texas, Arizona and Kansas, with 165 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 11 states, including New York, New Jersey and California, with 168 electoral votes. In 19 states that have 205 electoral votes, including Washington, Maine and Oregon, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error. quote.bloomberg.com