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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (51445)	7/8/2004 4:04:33 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

spot on, though the edges of 1 and 2 gets blurry at times, but yes, I think your summary is good It is simply a race, between China siphons all manufacturing from all across the world and China can consume plenty in its own right. Winning by the first death-match combatant will tend to energize deflation, unemployment, and global equalization of cost and revenue, and Winning by the second death-match combatant will tend to energize inflation, better employment at poorer pay, and global equalization of cost and revenue. What is your preference :0? Jay

To: elmatador who wrote (51445)	7/8/2004 9:39:11 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

one thing you forgot is the dynamics of the Chinese politics. take "cooling down" as an example, Wen the Premier wants the economy cool-down, but some other Political Bureau members do not (an unique side of the Chinese politics). So the result is just about right, some sectors cool down and some are not. and the cooling down sectors are done at a slower pace. The word "dry-up" is simply NOT the case here. And especially some big, related to national security, projects, like the important railroad, and some big anti-pollution projection, etc..., will be still under construction. China has recently decides to build 3 strategic railroad, one is China-Maynmar, one is China-Pakistan, and another is the railroad around south and east parts of China. The cost will be at least a couple of hundreds of billion Yuan. There are some other examples like this. Plus, there is another factor of "foreign capital", which tend to fill in the gap when Chinese banks are tightening. I read that there are plenty of half-finished constructions all over China, and because of the loan has stopped, so the construction cannot go on. The loan lent earlier will be counted as "bad debt" on balance book. And here is what foreign capital kicks in. They want to buy these half-done buildings pennies on a dollar, and then finish the construction, and sell them to the highest bidder or the public. These are the sweetest deal, and a huge loss for national-owned companies. and the foreign banks usually can only be satisfied to a certain degree. Morgan stanley recently wanted to bought 40 some half-done constructions in Sichuan, but later were only sold for 5 or so.