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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (51472)	7/8/2004 6:37:58 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I get the impression that Russian criminal activity is a constant, and not an indicator of general economic activity.... About a year ago, when some German banks like Commerzbank and Hypo were having trouble, that may have been a cause of world wide financial instability. I don't see that degree of instability now. Russian GDP is roughly equal to Canada's - economic power is nat the same as its' political or military power. Worldwide, things look okay - Japan's ecomony is getting better, and about two tranches of shaky banks have been cleaned up or at least covered over. Maybe 2-4 more actions to go over next 5 years, but only moderate pain & less risk each time. Korea has partial cleaned up their consumer credit card mess, and business is good. Austrailia is sound, having had a nasty banking and insurance crisis about 5 years ago when commodity prices bottomed. OZ was stress tested. Canada seems okay as resource country too. Europe seems to be okay - some marginal stuff cleaned up prior to Eurozone expansion. UK housing bubble is a problem but is being addressed, and is mostly priced into the market for UK finance firms. Germany and core Euro zone are doing better, but recovery is shakey and thin. South America - Argentine bad news is in, big question is how close to Argetina does Brazil need to go ? Mexico doing okay as US recovers, price of oil is up. China is the big question, but looks like they will muddle through to a landing, hard or soft, not a crash. What may provide great opportunities for Jay in asset prices may be seen as only a moderate blip in real economic activity. US economy is still growing, maybe at a slower rate, state & federal government incomes are up. Jobs still increasing. Not a pretty recovery, but a recovery anyway. I just don't see the sky falling - maybe some rain.