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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (33457)	7/8/2004 9:51:19 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Today's action was caused by no specific headline and the commentary that I read relates to a run from a base at a Fibonacci retracement line that held at $37.85. Traders were saying this morning that a run at $40 was happening today, so I guess in some regards it is a self fulfilling prophecy. Gasoline inventories instead of declining went up by 3.4% yoy while consumption was up 0.9%. I think this is the 7th straight week where inventories have increased by more than 10 million barrels, which is a first. Natural gas inventories were again higher than the EIA estimate and the sector sold off. Had Ridge not made a terror alert, perhaps oil would not have gone up as much. But despite oil rising as it did today, the sector was down, gas was down, and the energy stocks were down too. Could this be a turn, who knows? I also read that hedge fund mangers and other large speculators reduced net-long positions in NY crude oil futures and options to the lowest in eight months in the week ended June 29. Prices have surged 13% since then. Speculative long positions outnumbered short positions by 47,000 contracts, down 29 percent from a week earlier. It was the fourth decline in five weeks and left net-long positions at the lowest level since November 4th. Inventories continued to increase at a healthy pace across all fuels. The quote from the Bloomberg article I printed before I left the office reads as follows: "There is residual upward momentum that is slow to dissipate. We're in a great period of fundamental denial. The rise in inventories does matter and the laws of economics have not been repealed so you can expect a strong correction down the road," according to Tim Evans, a senior energy analyst with New York based researcher IFR Pegasus. I know many of you super bulls would disagree, but I would urge you to protect your gains somehow. Again, with oil breaking $40 today and the energy sectors and service industries not rising as well, this could well mark the beginning of the annual seasonal correction. I have been wrong for a few weeks, but I have my puts in place for the xng and xle. I almost added more xng today but I did not do so before the energy report. Best regards and good luck