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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (53497)	7/8/2004 9:50:06 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793843

Falluja returns to the forefront in Iraq Barnett “Falluja Pullout Left Haven Of Insurgents, Officials Say: But U.S. and Iraqis Are Reluctant to Send G.I.’s Back, Fearing a New Uprising,” by Dexter Filkins, New York Times, 8 July, p. A1 . “Stability coming back to streets of capital: But some say bureaucracy heavy-handed,” by Paul Wiseman, USA Today, 8 July, p. 8A. “U.S. Starts Drawing Plans To Cut Its Troops In Iraq,” by Eric Schmitt, NYT, 8 July. P. A11. “Lawmakers: Troop call-ups pose ‘alarm’; Guard, reserves being strained,” by Tom Squitieri and Dave Moniz, USA, 8 July, p. 9A. Falluja shapes up as the great sanctuary of all key elements of the insurgency: Iraqi Islamic radicals, foreign fighters like those led by Zarqawi, and Baathists plotting their return to power. The interim government’s rule does not extend there, and the U.S. military doesn’t want to go back, knowing it will inevitably kill hundreds to take the city, possibly creating more problems than it’s worth. Eventually, either Iraqi forces go in there or those inside Falluja settle some of these matters on their own and reduce the problem set greatly for the government and associated U.S. forces. That’s why yesterday’s news about Iraqi Islamic extremists calling for Zarqawi’s death or capture was so meaningful. Ideally the U.S. military bodyguards the government while the emerging Iraqi military and police do the peace-keeping and insurgency squashing as much as is feasible, given their meager resources/skills/etc. That approach seems to be bearing some fruit in Baghdad, but Falluja will be the acid test. Meanwhile, back home it looks like the military is coming apart at the seams in terms of personnel and rotations into and out of Iraq. Announcements are being issued in all directions: more troops, fewer troops, not enough troops, no draft, etc. Nothing drives transformation like personnel issues, so watch for big changes in coming months with the Army and Reserve Component. The breaking points are being reached, so new rule sets will rapidly emerge. The occupation continues to transform transformation. The good news for the troops in Iraq is that, with the political handover now complete, their disposition should hopefully be driven now by real events and milestones and not political expediency. No more big decisions built on fumes. As our general in northern Iraq, BGEN Ham puts it, “There were, not unexpectedly, a few minor hiccups. But every day we are closer to the day when Iraqi Security Forces will have the capability to manage their own security matters.” Things may look surprising bright by early November, meaning Kerry and Edwards better not plan on winning over Iraq but instead on the economy and the state of our alliances and our standing in the world community—and they better come with a message of optimism, not just Bush failures. Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at July 8, 2004 08:12 PM thomaspmbarnett.com