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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (51490)	7/9/2004 8:41:19 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi ep, Now that's a different take as so many are expecting a resolution soon to that wedge condition... Interestingly also mainstream media here and in the US is also picking up the NG crisis as prices have not abated really.. hmmm! I`m back to energy and PMs, more energy (trust content increasing) and stock picking... My perspective is of course a bit different maybe having the Loonie as my home currency.. While it would be great for me I think Taikun`s .80 or a little better is likely the top again in the Loonie... regards Kastel

To: energyplay who wrote (51490)	7/9/2004 10:58:30 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>>Like a damped oscillation or in TA terms a wedge, the swings are getting smaller.<< ... which has always been interpreted as the day of reckoning is close or closer. But then again, the toast always lands on the buttered side. Went into PAAS yesterday. dj

To: energyplay who wrote (51490)	7/9/2004 3:38:36 PM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 74559

I own FJSCX and SJPNX (Scudder Japan Fund). I know Matthews is a top performer but I read in the WSJ several months back that they are small (see below) and as they were having a hard time finding good investments, were closing some Asian funds to new investments. Apparently Scudder (I know Morningstar has a 'hold' on Scudder due to market timing-but that is a different fund manager and not SJPNX, but Scudder Japan Funds is not doing so well recently) and FJSCX have good YTD returns on 3x and 12X (respectively) larger funds than MJFOX. In Japan the small IPO market is very hot right now (IPOs going out the door at 2x the rate than in the US, (see TokyoIpo.com ipotokyo.com. The Nikkei's medium term high is around 20,500 March 2000, so at 11,000 and change currently, I think it could double hereon out. The domestic investor is getting involved, and smaller issues can outperform the big caps, I think. Add to this currency appreciation (remember the Yen hit 78 cents to the greenback in the later 90s) and as a US investor it should be a good hedge. A few possible red flags: 1. Japan is now very dependent on exports to China (Komatsu diggers, Hitachi & Mitsubishi Electric exporting semiconductor plant equipment) 2. Huge debt -although by no means much worse than US debt 3. High energy costs-although Japan is working out issues with nuclear reactor maintenance and has deals with places like Iran to develop cheap oil ($2bn for 75% of a project to produce 100m barrels oil/yr) 4. Aging society Ticker/Assets/YTD USD return SJPNX: 428m, 4.09% FJSCX: 1.29bn, 15.38 MJFOX: 105m, 11.43 FJSCX is 5/6 my Japanese mutual funds , SJPNX 1/6, and I expect FJSCX to continue to pick winners in the Japanese small caps market and participate in IPOs under the Fidelity brand name (Japanese love brands). Then again, I think Jay exited his Japan holdings Nov 03. I have a personal interest in Japan through my family.