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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (33484)	7/9/2004 9:47:06 PM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206200

Oil seems to have a support zone between $36 and $38. The TA doesn't work exactly but it's close. It could be in the process of making a top, but to do that it needs to go back to $42 first. NG seems to have settled into a trading range of $6-7. I don't think that all this talk of summertime heat driving prices higher has any substance. People have predicted that in previous years, and while the numbers looked persuasive, in reality nothing happened. Builds will come down a little, and storage will get to where it needs to be. Even if there was a price spike it wouldn't help the OSX, because everybody will assume it is temporary. What concerns me with OSX is not the oil/gas part, but the stock part. If stocks tank then OSX will get dragged along for the ride, regardless of what is happening to the business. SPX broke it's recent support level, and looks like it is headed for a re-test of the May lows. If future data confirms a slow down in the US economy then that will provide the fundamental justification for a sell-off. People will remember there is a correlation between high oil prices and recessions. Meanwhile OSX is facing major resistance at 110/111. I don't think there is any chance of breaking through that while the overall market is going down. A trip back to 95 looks like the better bet. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[db][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

To: quehubo who wrote (33484)	7/9/2004 10:50:49 PM
From: excardog	Respond to of 206200

IMHO when the EIA forecast's get bullish you need to take a look around. There is plenty of oil available at this time. Anything over 300m in storage is plenty. The supply disruption premium could fade away quick with some decent off loads in the next few weeks. Remember SA cranked up about a month and a half ago. We can argue that SA doesn't have the ability but until this becomes proven it's just speculation on both sides. Our economy is based in large part on cheap energy and right now it isn't cheap. The auto makers sales on SUV's dropped 30% in June. Forced summer vacations for some assembly plants now. These things and others add up to an economy that is slowing. The job numbers in my book are a bunch of hooey. Trusting the BLS to report accurate numbers is like following along with the very late to the party EIA. Glad you raised some cash my account is over 60%.