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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (22057)	7/10/2004 12:50:17 AM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 306849

Hi Chris, re: "Does anyone have a good read on US population projections? " The following was taken from posts on another thread (you'll note that 72M <> 115M so there's an error below) ===================================================== The total baby boomers are about 72M, while Echo boomers are 60M. So even they aren't enough to replace the baby boomers. In addition, they are at the bottom of the labor pool right now and will take another 10-20 years to work their way up to decent paying jobs. See echo boom: stats.bls.gov bls.gov "The high growth rate of the civilian labor force in the last 50 years will be replaced by much lower growth rates in the next 50 years...The civilian labor force...grew...1.6 percent per year, between 1950 and 2000. It is projected that the labor force will reach 192 million in 2050...or a growth rate of .6 percent annually, between 2000 and 2050." Here are the figures for the total civilian labor force from the report above: 1950 = 62208 2000 = 140863 2050 = 191825 (forecasted) The above figures when translated to an average monthly growth is as follows: 1950 to 2000 = 131K per month 2000 to 2050 = 85K per month. Here are some more statistics for you. There are around 115 million baby boomers. Of those in the labor force, 1/4 will retire every 5 years starting in 2010, until by 2030 the majority of baby boomers will have retired. So baby boomer retirment has already begun to trickle. But the first massive wave of retirement will start in 2010, and unemployment rates will plummet and wages rise steadily after that. ===============================

To: bentway who wrote (22057)	7/10/2004 11:26:45 AM
From: Tradelite	Respond to of 306849

<<the boomers were like a pig passing through a python - when they're gone, they'll be more housing than people>> Problem is, boomers are going to live longer than previous generations and live to spend a lot of money on different types of housing. Their offspring are also going to live longer, thanks to medical science. (And watch out for those fertility drugs, which seem to be capable of creating monster-sized families in one day--<GG>.) Population growth isn't the only thing to reckon with....Longevity of the current population and future generations just might be the fly in the ointment for people who doubt that demand for real estate will continue and maybe even get more intense than it is now.

To: bentway who wrote (22057)	7/10/2004 5:33:07 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>Does anyone have a good read on US population projections<< The answers you seek are here: hsdent.com hsdent.com Here's the three sentence precis: Aggregate boomer spending will peak between 2009 and 2012, with the US economy growing strongly until then. US residential real estate prices, in aggregate, will show moderate annual increases through the end of this decade. From ~2010 through ~2023, the US economy will face a very difficult period of declining consumer demand with the potential for a ~13+ year recession/depression and also for very significant declines in residential real estate prices in many parts of the country.