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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (51518)	7/11/2004 12:51:16 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<<20 year introduction and rollout (1990-2010) of a slew of related wireless and broadband technologies.>> I do rollout for a living. I can tell you what happened between 1990 and 2004. And can give you a glimpse of what can happen between 2005 and 2010. Journalists and analysts who feed the minds of people, know a lot of facts. But there's a difference between them and Elmat. ELMAT IS INVOLVED! hence his info is not packaged and edited: it is his milieu. (Yes ACF, I climb towers and masts too :-) The 90's boosted capex on wired and wireless technologies, due to two main factors: 1) Countries started following Maggie Thatcher model for BT 2)Processing power and memory got cheaper and new technologies became cost-effective. From 1990 to 1999 voice had a second option (besides fixed line): wireless. Wireless networks were deployed fast and by 1999 most developed countries had 50% penetration. Between 2000 and 2004, Telecoms sector has been living by: 1) Selling to the underdeveloped countries neglected by the vendors during building out in the developed world: Today is 2 and 2.5G being built in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, India, Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, Brazil, Algeria... This market has been carrying the wireless vendors. 2) Concerning the newest 3G technologies: Had not been by Li-Ka Shing and Jay's neighbor his son Canning Fok, big wireless vendors would had already entered in an orgy of consolidation and merging. Luckily fro them, Hutchinson's Li-Ka Shing, started building in Sweden, UK, Thailand and Hong Kong. This gave real networks to test-bed the new technologies in real markets and showed terminal manufacturers they were going to be built. If this wasn't the case, we would have a network in Monaco, in the Isle of Man or other purely lab-type demo-type networks. DO NOT COUNT WITH WIRELESS TECHNOLOGIES TO BRING ABOUT A NEW WAVE OF GROWTH! (You'd see Elmat getting fat if this would be the case :-) Here is what is going to happen in the wireless sector between 2004 and 2005. We have still one year of growth pulled by the rollout in the developing countries which are deploying fast, cutting taxes in terminals, stopping sweet deals between two operator only countries which have so far screwed the users, in short, emulating the market in the developed world. In parallel to that, 3G will be built in Euroland. That major third country (wireless speaking, the US, with a 15 year delay will reach 50% penetration. All that and we are still in the Summer of 2006. But the vendors themselves will not survive in the form they are right now. There is an long overdue consolidation on the cards. The fixed line part of the business is a drag. The need to have a 'me too' mobile phone business is another. (Siemens profit margins in mobile phones is 1%). In the 24 months, it will dawn on the wireless market that the painful wait for WIRELESS TECHNOLOGIES TO BRING ABOUT A NEW WAVE OF GROWTH is all in vain. It is already starting: See new Siemens CEO Message 20288382 See Nortel's future: Message 20289335 From all of them, only Alcatel will survive in its present form because the government will protect them as always happen in France. ALL THE MONEY THAT HAVE TO BE EXTORTED FROM TELECOMS (Y2K, spectrum auctions, delays of new technologies to screw the customers, etc etc etc...) HAVE ALREADY BEEN!!!