Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (9063)	7/11/2004 2:47:24 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

JW, >>> I talk about an abandoned US mfg base, and foreign import dependence which has a monstrous structural imbalance a lower US$ accompanied a rising US trade gap from 2002 to 2004 you have not explained how that happened, ignore how I explain it, and now misquote me<< I do not ignore it I just do not agree to the extreme predictions. As to the trade deficit, well I would say that this imbalance is much older working it’s way for at least the last 15 of not more years. Due to US population growth 1% in trade deficit may be acceptable for several years, but not more Today IMHO fundamentals do not count as CB's around the world are not accountable to any one and so are governments in their fiscal policies. As long s the most incompatible administration makes it's populace happy they are re-elected and the music goes on. It is easier for an exporting country to keep their people employed and buy tons of confetti printed by the US than to measure up to true social reform and higher unemployment rate. Keep in mind that for most developing countries the multiplier effect is over 3 per manufacturing job as they also relay on improving their infrastructure. Further the per capita GDP is much more lower than in the Western Countries and the US and therefore their eagerness to export in exchange of USD and EUR etc. and receive in exchange confetti printed by the US treasury which ends up as a loan whereby there is no interest to pay. As no one will held them responsible for selling their own people work for confetti printed in the US which by the way can buy some corn, wheat or soy beans they will do it to keep more people working and off the streets dreaming up all kind of ideas related to new social orders and wealth distribution. A collapse of the USD will unravel tremendous imbalances hardship and social unrest all around the world and the US knows it.