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To: GVTucker who wrote (178567)	7/13/2004 10:21:38 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Island reversal breakout almost invalidated. Gap all but filled filled with trade at 26.19 trade only .03 above yeterdays close. One would think they wanted to close the gap but have not so far. Pretty exciting trading the day before earnings. Bob

To: GVTucker who wrote (178567)	7/13/2004 10:26:41 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

GV, RE: "I think that the bounce we've seen in the economy for the past 3 years is just about over. The combination of higher rates, higher inflation, and probable decline in federal spending will just be too much of a hurdle to overcome. " The wild card is hiring. If hiring comes online, that could provide continued consumer stimulus But the decline in fed spending would negatively impact hightech. (Though, they should reduce this deficit.) We also can't forget two new consumer markets coming online, whose middle classes are the same size as the USA. Regards, Amy J

To: GVTucker who wrote (178567)	7/13/2004 2:12:14 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

I think that the bounce we've seen in the economy for the past 3 years is just about over What bounce ? Silicon Valley has been in a continuous depression , and with the first uptick in the last 90 days. You see miles of empty commercial real estate, and empty parking lots. There has been a gradual and continuous worsening until recently. But I forget that the rest of the country did not suffer like Silicon Valley ! You are right that the interest rates have bottomed, and the government fiscal and monetary stimulus are over. So the average PE will probably fall, but hopefully the high tech earnings will be on the upswing. Will probably make for a choppy market, caught up in two opposing counter currents.