Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (178575)	7/13/2004 2:47:19 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 186894

Although rates have ticked up a 1/4 - I would hardly agree to the statement FISCAL STIMULUS IS OVER.Are not the tax returns - just finally beginning to give the uppe income peoplr full point tax reductions? I think fiscal stimulus was planned to not have its greatest impact initially and in the outter years the higher income tax barckets finally get what the lower income groups received in some cases retroactively. I think the big fiscal stimulus is just happening. Perhaps monetary stimulus has gone up a 1/4 point but money is still historically cheap. Mortgages on new home haven't stopped and they're keyed off 10 years treasuries ,which have gone up 250 basis points vs just the feds 25 raise. The news media has been spewing their sick perspective so thoroughly that we begin to think the spickot has been closed.Quite the contrary. We have strong plans which will enable all Americans (not just those who immediately spend their 600 dollar check at WalMart) to have more of their income to spend on their chosen purchases. In general I see a growing economy that has soaked up excess inventory and is now growing at a natural rate that seemed hidden as deflation and inventory burn off was being achieved. At this time of ecenomy has the lowest level of inventory to sales ratio ever recorded.Actually that was last month. This month had a slight uptick which can be called a ramp up for increased production levels or a slow down of sales rate. Since the Chicago manufacturing actvity indes bounced up this month as well as (I think it was Philadelphia) popped up strongly this month as well. The times are no where near as bad as all the crud you hear from the TV news media. JMHO Bob

To: GVTucker who wrote (178575)	7/13/2004 2:47:20 PM
From: Saturn V	Respond to of 186894

Investment Imbalance Yes, Silicon Valley went thru the 1849 style California Gold Rush and the painful Bust. Semiconductor Down Grade Tom Kurlak, an ex-ML analyst,who was the axe on Intel a few years ago, is now the Bull and disagrees with the ML downgrade. He argues with more relevant data than what the new ML analyst used for the downgrade. biz.yahoo.com Don't Dismiss Chips Now Tuesday July 13, 10:53 am ET By Thomas Kurlak, Special to RealMoney.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Whatever happened to "buy low, sell high"? A lot of tech analysts seem to have gotten it reversed lately, running away from stocks already down 25% to 40% due to fears of an impending slowdown that doesn't seem to be evident in the reports I get from top industry participants. Indeed, one leading chip-equipment maker, Novellus (NasdaqNM:NVLS - News), just reported a 41% increase in sales and a fivefold jump in profit, above analysts' views, but some were unimpressed, instead looking for a slowdown. Novellus' management raised its third-quarter guidance, calling for a 113% year-over-year sales gain, which is up 22% sequentially, in a summer quarter. Fears of a peaking semiconductor cycle are largely based on the worry that too much new capacity is being installed, thus glutting the market. This looks wrong to me. As I said in my previous column, chip-equipment buying this year will total about $44 billion, or about 20% of semiconductor industry revenue, estimated by most forecasters to be around $225 billion. This ratio of spending to sales is in line with the industry's 20-year long-term average and is only half of the level at the last cycle peak. Today, the CEO of Applied Materials (NasdaqNM:AMAT - News) commented on CNBC that his customers are planning to buy more equipment, are upbeat and need the newest equipment technology to meet rising demand. Also, recent data from the Semiconductor Industry Association show that capacity utilization is near 100%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor companies aren't having an inventory buildup that is out of line with what is normal this time of year in anticipation of seasonally stronger second-half demand. That's especially true in Intel's (NasdaqNM:INTC - News) case, where it has new microprocessors coming to market for new notebook PCs. A leading electronics distributor tells me his inventory is in good shape, and his customers are optimistic. Up until today with Novellus, we've only gotten earnings statements from also-ran, third-tier semiconductor companies that confessed to be having trouble (meaning, losing share) and that see trouble ahead. Let's wait for the real players before forming a judgment on the industry. Wall Street downgrades into earnings releases imply that either some bad news is anticipated or analysts are trying to make their opinions fit the current climate. I'm a proponent of anticipating change; it's what a good analyst tries to do. But I've never seen a major cycle peak out after only a year and a half. Sure, there have been a lot of mini-cycles within an overall recovery, but for longer-term investors, those have always been buying opportunities. In the whole scheme of things, I don't see much chance for this economic recovery to top out, even with an administration change in the White House. Neither candidate wants this recovery to stall. The semiconductor industry grows by about five times the growth in real GDP; so as long as GDP exceeds 3%, this year and next should be good growth years for the chip companies.