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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (290827)	7/13/2004 6:03:21 PM
From: Venkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

oh dear>gg>

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (290827)	7/14/2004 12:15:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 436258

Mish Election Analysis based on latest polls and other factors rasmussenreports.com Bush is going to have to spend far more money in far more places than I think he wanted to. That evens up $ the field quite a bit. Bush was staggeringly ahead in $ at one point but no longer so. Battleground states: FL IA MO VA NH ME TN MI Florida turnaround is staggering. I will take a crack at that one. I bet is has to do with screwing senior citizens over drugs from Canada and the medicaid screwups. FL is tremendous news because Bush can ill affort to lose those 27 votes without a big pickup elsewhere. I think ME IA and NH will fall back into the Kerry camp next month (perhaps at the expense of FL moving to tossup but right now, if my reasons are correct I think Bush ultimately loses FL). That is enormous! IF I am correct about ME IA and NH then things are going to start to look a lot more bleak for Bush. Of course this is premature as we have two conventions to go thru. However, one more major FU of any kind now and the fat lady will be singing (and it will not be Dixie). Bush has to contend with.... Some major FU on his part or in his administration F911 fallout Tenent & CIA God knows what in Iraq oil stock market collapse Anti Bush books coming out US citizens getting tired of this stupid war jobs jobs jobs (who cares what the numbers say, Bush can lie all he wants the fact is there is no recovery in jobs or wages) medicaid & senior health issues Gay rights and side issues Bush summary: the potential for BAD things on numerous fronts for Bush is there. If there are surprises, the liklihood is that they will be BAD SURPRISES. What bad things can happen to Kerry? He says something stupid? He blows up in the debates? His wife leaves him? Kerry Summary: Not much there really and note that Bush can say something stupid, and Bush can blow up in the debates and I did not even have those under Bush. OK what about the good side. Bush: We can capture OBL Oil prices drop like a rock Iraq starts going smooth as silk We really start producing jobs (but then interest rates will skyrocket) Kerry good side: Nothing Wildcard: How much would a capture of OBL matter? Who knows? Judging from stock market reaction today to one of his aids turning himself in, I say not much but it is a guess. It could matter a lot. I would not put it past this admin to know where he is and time it for max effect. Then again, intelligence and the Bush admin do not go hand in hand. On one hand they are crooked enough, on the other they are not bright enough. I will say OBL capture is the wildcard for Bush. His best chance for a miracle. Final analysis: Our economy is starting to slow, interest rates are starting to rise, and stagflation seems to be setting in. All the war stimulus is fading, business tax credits are expiring, inflation is heading up and GDP estimates are falling. Kerry should keep on doing what he is doing: NOTHING The odds of something going wrong for Bush are extremely high. The odds of Kerry winning even IF nothing goes seriously wrong for Bush are quite good. This election is CLEARLY Kerry's to lose not Bush's to win. The way for Kerry to lose it would be to do or say something stupid. Kerry's best bet is to just stay out of trouble and let other people and republican infighting do his work for him. A couple of good debates and it is all over for Bush. Look at possible bad things that can happen to Bush and then look at them for Kerry. I will be SHOCKED if there are not several bad thing happening to Bush in the months ahead. Mish