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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (178596)7/14/2004 3:42:32 AM
From: Amy J  Respond to of 186894
 
Lizzie, RE: "software is bad because employment is bad."

Don't get why sw is bad. But it wouldn't hurt to have employment be bad for a couple more quarters so companies are assured to get on their feet - which is better for everyone in the long-term. But yes, if employment doesn't pick up stronger by Q4, that could impact consumer spending - because all the tricks are used up.

However, there are already strong signs of modest hiring attempts - definitely - so I don't think Roach's scenario plays out this time around. (Though I like his writings.)

RE: "And I don't see how this does not also apply to intel."

Don't recall a disconnect between hw & sw before. Puzzling. But Intel's report makes it pretty clear they think H2 will be okay for capital spending. (Whew.) IBM's report was okay too.

RE: "There probably hasn't been an upgrade cycle as you say, but why would there be one with no workers? I think this is it."

Not sure where the USA is on an upgrade cycle, but things certainly look old at our company, overseas too. Dell ads look tempting but definitely not now.

Regards,
Amy J