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Technology Stocks : Sanmina Corp. (SANM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mopgcw who wrote (215)	7/16/2004 7:17:04 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 239

IBM had good hardware sales. Dell just raised guidance. SANM probably had a fine quarter, and will have a fine outlook. I think $7 is too cheap, considering SANM was $15 siz months ago and things have only gotten better since then. Elroy

To: mopgcw who wrote (215)	7/19/2004 8:59:51 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 239

GS: Sanmina-SCI Corp. EPS (FY Sep) 2004E $0.24, 2005E $0.46 In-Line/Neutral (SANM) $6.67 What we know so far: (1) Jun-Q data points have been light, particularly s/w; (2) Sep-Q outlook is likely to be inline, at best, as few mgmts will take a risk (we think previously bullish mgmts will tone it down, because of what they see in the news, not what they see in their business); (3) JNPR showed carrier spend is probably fine; & (4) IBM showed that even with limited share gains, enterprise h/w spending wasn't horrible. As discussed in our 7/14 preview, our hypothesis is that current data is not a sign of the beginning of the end, but perhaps a sign that seasonal patterns of the 90s have changed & tech may be more backended, like in 03. If our hypothesis is correct, we think 05 ests should roughly hold current levels, which means many tech names may be oversold. Below we detail EMS names that seem oversold N/T, into earnings (e.g. SANM) and medium term, to year end. We also provide key OEM exposures to watch for EMS implications early next week & key OEM exposures that EMS results may foreshadow.