To: redfish who wrote (291032 ) 7/16/2004 8:39:25 AM From: redfish Respond to of 436258 The good the bad and the ugly: Core inflation up just 0.1% June consumer price index rises 0.3% on energy costs The consumer price index increased 0.3 percent in June, slightly ahead of expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. However, the core CPI - which excludes food and energy costs - rose just 0.1 percent, a tick less than the 0.2 percent expected by 30 of 34 economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch. The CPI increased 0.6 percent in May; the core CPI rose 0.2 percent in May. The CPI is now up 3.3 percent in the past year, up from 3.1 percent last month. The core CPI is up 1.9 percent, the fastest gain since January 2003. Economists said before the release that the Federal Reserve would likely remain on course for a "measured" series of quarter-point increases in the federal funds rate as long as the core CPI did not explode above 2 percent. If inflation accelerates further, the Federal Open Market Committee would likely turn to half-percentage point increases in the fed funds rate. It's assumed the FOMC would like core inflation to average around 2 percent.With prices rising 0.3 percent, real average weekly earnings fell 0.8 percent in June. Real average weekly earnings are down 1.4 percent in the past year after adjusting for inflation. Energy was the main area of concern in June in the CPI. Energy prices rose 2.6 percent in June after 4.6 percent in May. Gasoline prices rose 3.1 percent, but actually ended the month of June lower than where it started, according to separate Energy Department figures. Gasoline prices have increased by 33 percent in the past 12 months. Natural gas and fuel oil prices increased 4.4 percent. Food prices increased 0.2 percent after 0.9 percent in May. Beef prices and dairy prices rose 1.7 percent, offsetting a 1.2 percent drop in fruits. Elsewhere, inflationary pressures were modest. Housing prices rose 0.3 percent in June after 0.4 percent gains in April and May. Hotel prices fell 0.9 percent. Homeownership costs rose 0.2 percent. Medical care costs also increased 0.3 percent for the second month in a row. Drug prices increased 0.2 percent. Apparel prices rose 0.2 percent in June after 0.3 percent in May. Transportation prices rose 0.8 percent on higher fuel costs. New car prices increased 0.2 percent and are now down 0.1 percent in the past year. Airfares rose 0.7 percent. Recreation prices increased 0.3 percent. Education and communication prices rose 0.2 percent, including a 0.6 percent rise in college tuition, which is up 10.1 percent in the past year.cbs.marketwatch.com