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To: elmatador who wrote (51578)	7/15/2004 6:03:07 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 74559

Speaking of Brazil, what's your opinion on Brazilian stocks? Compared to other equity markets Brazil seems undervalued, particularly given its growth potential. And Lula's policies, a leftist, don't seem to be hostile to the markets.

To: elmatador who wrote (51578)	7/15/2004 9:26:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

I recommend folks get the History Channel DVD set on the history of Sparta (includes the story of Troy and the big 'Horse'). History is threatening to rhyme Saudi Arabia: The Amnesty and the Stranded Mujahideen July 15, 2004 Summary stratfor.com Another former militant has taken Saudi Arabia up on its month-long amnesty offer -- but he does not exactly fit the profile of an ideal amnesty candidate. The interpretation of who is eligible is widening. Analysis Ibrahim al-Sadeq al-Harbi, a Saudi who reportedly fled the country in 2000 after a brief stint in prison and the confiscation of his passport, turned himself in at the Saudi Embassy in Damascus on July 15 -- making him the fourth person to take advantage of Riyadh's June 23 offer of amnesty to former militants if they surrender within a month's time. Like Khaled bin Audah bin Mohammed al-Harbi, who surrendered June 13 in Iran, he does not seem to fit the profile of the ideal candidate for the amnesty offer, but the interpretation is widening. Ibrahim al-Sadeq al-Harbi's family claims he has no link to al Qaeda, but he did travel to Afghanistan and Bosnia in the 1990s -- trips for which Saudi security forces questioned and briefly detained him before releasing him from prison in 2000. Fairly soon thereafter, he fled the country. Both al-Harbis (the Saudi Embassy says it does not know if the two are related and notes the al-Harbi tribe is rather large) are apparently former mujahideen -- veterans of conflicts far from the Saudi borders. There are several thousand similar stateless "Arab Afghans," mujahideen from the anti-Soviet fight in Afghanistan who were not welcome in their home countries after the Soviets left Afghanistan. These stateless former fighters remained in Afghanistan or traveled to border regions and third-world countries such as Pakistan, Syria or Iran. From there, some traveled farther, joining jihadists in places such as Tajikistan, Bosnia, Chechnya and Kosovo, or linking up with al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Africa. Few were encouraged to return home, and many were actively kept out by governments that did not want to see potential "troublemakers" coming back to their countries. With little support from home, many of these stranded mujahideen found themselves supported financially and spiritually by the al Qaeda network -- regardless of whether they were part of the organization. This informal network of support gave al Qaeda a ready pool of potential recruits and a group of people with a positive view of the organization and a willingness to spread the message -- if not the method -- of al Qaeda's ideals and goals. Many of these same former mujahideen would like to return home, and the Saudi amnesty offer is being tested as a way to do so. For Saudi Arabia, the return of select individuals represents a public relations coup -- showing how the regime is embracing these abandoned citizens and breaking up the al Qaeda network through nonviolent means. The involvement of Iran and Syria in this process is interesting, and could reflect some back-channel negotiations on other issues as well, including Iraq and the regional balance of power. With the two test cases of the al-Harbis, others could be coming in soon, either publicly or through quieter channels. If enough return, it could start to fracture the informal network surrounding al Qaeda -- or it could prove to be a Trojan horse, facilitating the formation of a fifth column inside the kingdom. Copyrights 2004 - Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.

To: elmatador who wrote (51578)	7/16/2004 4:20:07 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Holidays or business (or both)? regards dj PS: the SE Asian climate softened you up, ElMat;)