Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cooters who wrote (134746)	7/16/2004 12:16:17 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

The analysts at both Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley are still ignorant sluts (or, douche bags). Jon.

To: Cooters who wrote (134746)	7/21/2004 12:25:23 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 152472

Cooters, Re: SSB / QCOM- SSB’s July 11 Qualcomm report goes into much detail (which merits praise- laying out the detail that is ) explaining the basis for their conclusion that- “MEETING OR EXCEEDING CONSENSUS FISCAL 2005 ESTIMATES COULD BE DIFFICULT” However, much of that detail is suspect, or at least very conservative. 1. “assumes an average royalty rate of 4%” for WCDMA handset sales. It’s my understanding that CDMA royalty rates are in the 5 to 5 ½ % range, with no difference for WCDMA . 2. “In total, there are roughly 330 million wireless subscribers in Western Europe.” (basis for estimating WCDMA penetration) The latest EMC data I’ve seen reflects the following subs for Western Europe- 2003- Dec 353.8M 2004- Dec 388.3 2005- Dec 406.2 3. SSB bases their WCDMA sub forecast on Japan and Western Europe, with Western European WCDMA penetration based on the FOMA experience, doubling such due to original poor handset quality/ performance “Even if we assume that we see double the penetration, up to 6%-8% of the installed base of total subscribers by year-end 2005, this would still require about 19-25 million from Japan, still a hefty number.” From my calculations the Europe GSM penetration level was close to 8% conversion after 3 years offering basically just improved voice service. One would think with well operating feature rich handsets the uptake should be much faster. 4. “QCT Margins 32%” The QCT margin for the last quarter was 36.3% (FYTD avg- 35.4%) , with FY guidance increased from 26% to 32%. With current margins over 36%, FY05 Margins could/ should be higher with increased volumes and higher priced feature rich / highly integrated MSMs which lower the overall BOM to handset mfgs (reducing assembly/ test/ procurement costs also). 5. “QTL Margins 91%” The QCT Margin for the last quarter was 92.7%