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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (9416)	7/17/2004 4:36:58 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Okrious, May everyone else have egg on their faces -- I prefer that you would be the near term champ at forecasting the miners. The rand sure looks like a blowoff top to me -- I don't understand Heinz's comment that about the time the rand starts to get week, gold is gonna crater ... While I am cautious on the golds near term -- I share your opinion on the dollar. Consider the huge bond rally we had -- the dollar ran in place -- that's all. That is encouragement #1 for me -- encouragement #2 is the divergence of the miners from the techs -- miners and the POG have held up reasonably well while, tech stocks have had a slide that has lasted for more than 3 days -- it's been a long time to see that ... If a transition is taking place on the buck and with respect to the miners, it has to start with a lot of doubt. We've got that in spades. Heinz focuses a lot on the SA and I am glad he does -- he is also a wealth of info on the correlation between gold and currencies -- he said the COTs for the franc and another currency were particularly bearish for gold -- well -- ok -- there is a good correlation there going back some time, but it ain't the end all. I also queried him privately about allocation between silver and gold equities and he said in the sector hsi weighting was about 15% silver / 85% gold -- reasoning that we are headed into a deflationary environment. I think I am underweight silver equities and I feel, for the time being, overweight junior miners -- but if what I think is going to happen, happens -- that will be an assessment that is only temporarily true. We shall see. I am expecting trouble for the dollar -- I don't care how the commercials are positioned. The currency markets and the bond markets used to play with them are a lot bigger than the futures markets which leverage them, IMO.