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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9417)	7/16/2004 10:14:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Boeing plans to hire up to 3,000 workers (BA) By Matt Andrejczak SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Boeing (BA) plans to hire up to 3,000 workers in its first large scale hiring campaign since September 2001. The aerospace giant plans to recall 1,000 laidoff machinists and up to 2,000 engineers, a Boeing spokesman said. The machinists are being added to help build 300 new commercial airplanes next year. The engineers are being hired to help with the company's new 7E7 jetliner and defense-related contracts. The bulk of the hirings will be made in Washington State, he added.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9417)	7/16/2004 10:16:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

while anything is possible I think that is a stupid analysis. It shows complacency and no fear during the decline. I also note that commercials and big specs are short and small specs are long. None of that looks like rally other than relief rally as we are so oversold. Watch call buying soar if we get any kind of 2 day up move here. Mish

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9417)	7/17/2004 12:25:30 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Greenspan to stay a measured course next week - Friday, July 16, 2004 9:49:12 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- At the end of the standard mystery novel, the detective gathers the suspects into a room and unveils the hidden secrets So it is in the coming week that financial markets players and Congress will gather to hear Alan Greenspan go over the mysteries of the U.S. economy Is the recent economic weakness in June the start of a trend? Where is inflation going? Sadly, however, Greenspan is no Hercule Poirot Instead of tying together all of the economy's loose clues in a flourish befitting a vintage Agatha Christie novel, economists expect the Federal Reserve chairman to stick closely to previous statements He will stress the key points of the Federal Open Market Committee's June 30 statement -- growth is solid; inflation is elevated but "transitory"; and more rate hikes are coming, but at a "measured pace." "Greenspan is unlikely to break new ground," said Goldman Sachs economist Ed McKelvey, echoing the sentiment of many economists "This is a time to lay low and not antagonize anyone in any direction," said economic analyst Robert Dederick. Greenspan will testify to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday afternoon and will appear before the House Financial Services panel on Wednesday for a second round of questions Former Fed Gov. Laurence Meyer said the economic ground is shifting beneath Greenspan's feet "This is a very tricky situation because the economy has changed a lot -- even since the June 30 meeting," Meyer said "We have almost a nightmare situation for Fed policymakers. They are facing weaker-than-expected growth and higher-than-expected inflation at the same time," he said Meyer said these are classic signs of a supply shock to the economy from higher oil prices Some economists have begun to talk about stagflation, the dreaded economic condition that hasn't been seen since the Farrah Fawcett posters of the 1970s But Greenspan is unlikely to tackle these concerns head-on, economists said "I don't even think he will say the word 'soft patch,'" said Chris Rupkey, economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "My God, if he does that, we're off to the races here." Douglas Lee, president of Economics from Washington, a research firm in Potomac, Md., said Greenspan is loath to alter the forecast because the FOMC has just begun a process of raising the Fed funds rate The Fed boosted its overnight interest rate target from 1 percent to 1.25 percent on June 30, the first increase in four years "You don't want to start raising interest rates unless it is the beginning of a process -- and then you want to follow through. I don't think conditions have changed enough since they started the process to change their basic thinking about what is going on yet," Lee said Looking for clues With Greenspan staying mum, economists will look for signs of what's to come in the updated FOMC economic forecast for 2004 that are included in the report Economists believe the FOMC must revise down its real 2004 GDP growth forecast and raise its inflation forecast In February, the FOMC forecast real GDP growth at a 4.5 percent to 5.0 percent rate from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2004. This forecast was higher than that of many private economists. But since then, growth has been a little disappointing. First-quarter growth came in at a 3.8 percent rate, and second-quarter growth is now expected to be weaker than that The biggest forecast miss has been inflation. The FOMC forecast the PCE deflator to only rise 1.0 to 1.25 percent this year, but the PCE index has risen at a 4.2 percent rate in the first five months of the year There are only a few economic indicators in the coming week Economists expect housing starts to remain flat at 1.97 million units in June after falling 0.7 percent in May The Commerce Department will release the housing starts report at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday Initial jobless claims are expected to move up 6,000 to 346,000 in the week ending July 17 after rising 40,000 to 340,000 in the previous week. The Labor Department will release the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m The index of leading economic indicators is expected to rise 0.1 percent in June after rising 0.5 percent in May. The Conference board will release its index at 10 a.m. on Thursday fxstreet.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9417)	7/17/2004 1:44:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Taiwan Central Bank Pledges to Curtail Run on Funds (Update3) July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan's central bank said it may step in to ensure stability in the island's NT$2.9 trillion ($86 billion) mutual funds industry after investor withdrawals forced five funds to halt redemptions. An estimated NT$240 billion worth of bond funds have been redeemed this week, according to the Commercial Times. The rush is ``irrational'' and sufficient money will be made available to provide ``liquidity to stabilize money markets,'' the bank said in a statement. The government didn't release any figures on size of redemptions. The problem ``was probably caused by Procomp,'' Jong Huey- jen, deputy director-general at the Securities and Futures Bureau, said in a phone interview. She was referring to Procomp Informatics Co.'s default on a bond payment due on June 16. ``Everybody now panics when hearing about bonds. This is an issue of confidence.'' Procomp Informatics Co., which makes chips used in communications and networking equipment, said it was unable to make payment on NT$2.98 billion of debt. The company's shares were halted by regulators on June 23. About 10,000 investors were hurt by the default, the Securities and Futures Investors Protection Center said. `Crisis of Confidence' The default sparked a ``crisis of confidence'' in the quality of financial reporting by companies in Taiwan, Standard & Poor's said in a report earlier this month. Taiwan's 10-year government bond was little changed as of 4:10 p.m., local time. The yield on the 2.375 percent bond maturing in March 2014 rose 0.1 basis point to 2.82 percent, trimming an earlier increase of 7.4 basis points, according the Gretai Securities Market. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. ``The central bank's promise to maintain stability provided assurance to investors in all financial sectors,'' said Jim Chen, a bond trader at International Bills Finance Corp. in Taipei. United Securities Investment Trust Corp., a closely held mutual fund, halted redemptions on its three funds earlier this week when it ran out of cash. Two more funds were subsequently halted, Jong said.