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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (33633)	7/17/2004 8:28:55 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206123

Don Coxe call - great listen - caution! Don sees a softer economy this summer and a perception that a weak economy will help kerry and ergo - hurt the market. Additionally, my read of Robry's numbers show increasing gas supplies - can someone take a look at Robry and give me their opinion! bmoharrisprivatebanking.com

To: quehubo who wrote (33633)	7/18/2004 8:11:13 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206123

Que, you make a valid argument and based on your theory when a slow down hits the China and other parts of the World crude will fall much further than even I can guess. Back in 97-98 when crude fell to 10BBL, noone expected such a down turn on demand and it was caused not just from Asian drop in demand but also if you recall in the 95-96 OSX Bull cycle OPEC decided to open the spicket, by the time they figured out there was too much on the market, OIL was at 10BBL. Many believe Japan was the reason but it was other factors. Look at today Demand picture, it reminds me so much of the 95-96 time frame when everyone thought there was not enough Crude. At some point Russia and Iraq will play a much larger role in reducing the price, but today we are now on the verge of what I consider Price Destruction. Yes, Crude adjusted for inflation is relatively fair priced, but this is not how Crude has been priced in the last 40 years. Inflation has never played a role and should not today. What I think many Americans do not understand is Crude/Gasoline is much more expensive everywhere else other then the US. I just returned from Europe 2 weeks ago and I can tell you right now, Recession is not far off on their horizons in Germany, and in England also. If you read any European papers or the Financial times you will see what the Public for the sluggishness in the European Economy. ( this is even as the EURO is at quite a high level) The bottom line, OPEC is on the verge of accomidating the so called Demand push and by the time they figure out they let too much out the world will be on the verge of a recession, while Crude begins its slow but surely fall back to reality.