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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (16630)	7/17/2004 11:25:30 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Are you positive you will even get 25bps? I am quite positive you will not get more but will you get any if the next few job reports suck and/or they manage to hold down the "core" CPI? Now speaking of jobs and wages did your method forecast this decline in wages? What says your method going forward. M

To: russwinter who wrote (16630)	7/17/2004 4:16:11 PM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 110194

Russ: In my opinion the fact that the coms are increasing their short position is very bullish. We have had this discussion before and the record is clear they short till the top and when they start to cover their shorts it is time to worry. I don't understand why this is so, but that has been the track record. Little joe

To: russwinter who wrote (16630)	7/17/2004 6:19:09 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, on the CRB, Dollar and COTS Thank you for posting the net change in the commercials short position in Gold, particularly, since the late May lows. As Little Joe points out there is nothing unusual about the Commercials increasing their net short position as price rises. I’d suggest the real important thing to know would be the rate at which they increase their shorts per dollar of advance. If their rate of increase per dollar of advance were to be slow then prices would rise more – a bullish situation, suggesting that sellers have higher price anticipation...To me it seems they are coming in pretty quickly on this rally, exhausting speculator buying power at a lower level in price than would otherwise be the case, but this I’m sorry to say is only an loose observation. I'm inclined to give my miner shares some rope, here, too, but not enough to hang ME...Must work on protective stop placement before the opening on Monday. Worthy of note are Jay Gallemore's charts this weekend, referenced below. See the trend indicators on GOLD SILVER COPPER and Crude....the current supporters of the CRB index. Those indicators are high in the scale, supporting your comments that the risk in Gold has increased. Also note at the bottom of the charts' page the quarterly chart of the CRB going back to the 1970s. See also there the trend indicator, flat at the top of the scale, and the inverse chart of the dollar. If the dollar reverses from down to up, (up to down on the inverted scale used on the chart) for whatever reason is concocted, the CRB would break its uptrend line and the Trend Indicator begin to roll over...What's of concern to me is that the T.I. once it has turned down in the past has gone all the way down to the bottom of the scale and commodities fallen. For me the only thing that would cause that to happen now would be a slow down in world GDP growth rates. Is that happening in China...is that happening in the US....?? What’s happening to M3 growth? Slowing? Jay Gallemore's charts. chartingyourfutures.com