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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (9468)	7/18/2004 11:28:25 AM
From: redfish	Respond to of 116555

From babelfish: Crash in the four walls many home of one's own markets are overheated. By the interest turn now world-wide setbacks threaten. That saves also for Germany risks of Michael Hoefling Who looks on the Website of Hamptons international for work, that becomes also fuendig. 21 places the steeped in tradition British real estate agent offers to specialists. Predominantly in London. The capital is the center of a speculation wave, which drove the prices for residential property in Great Britain into dangerous heights. Over material 96 per cent the prices rose after an investigation of Goldman Sachs since center of the nineties. The economist Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley warns: "Die exaggeration at the property market could end exactly the same with a Crash like the Aktienhype at the beginning of 2000."

To: mishedlo who wrote (9468)	7/18/2004 12:37:56 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

Crash in four walls Many own home markets are overheats. Now by the interest turn repercussions worldwide threaten. This also rescues for Germany risks from Michael Höfling Who looks on the website of Hamptons international for work, that becomes also successful. The British estate agent rich in tradition specialists offers 21 places. Mainly in London. The capital is the center of a speculation wave which has done the prices of residential property in dangerous heights in Great Britain. The prices have risen by really 96 percent after an investigation of Goldman Sachs since middle of the nineties. The small economist Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley warns: " The exaggeration in the property market could just end with a crash like the stock bubble in the beginning of 2000. " England is no isolated case. Also in the USA, Australia and Spain the prices of houses and apartments have strongly pulled during the last years. A 80 square meter two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan possibly costs about 30 percent more than still one year ago. The Australian house market is overrated after estimates by Goldman Sachs about 29 percent. Germany is not concerned by the phenomenon exorbitant of rising real-estate prices for several reasons directly (see short interview below). The apartment mania in a lot of countries has system. More and more investors became attentive after the horrible end of the century boom in the stock market on the continuous worth development of own homes. The financing was in view of low interest for years no problem. Many buyers could rent her objects even so well that her income exceeded the costs for the advance clearly. An ideal sphere also for speculators. The high inquiry for residential property had absolutely positive results. Just in the USA the growing property market after the market crash preserved the economy from a worse recession. In the sure feeling steadily of rising book values of her four walls the Americans consumed cheerfully farther. Indeed, clearly about her relations: Only in 2003 the indebtedness the private household has grown about 900 billion dollars. However, with the low level of interest rates which favoured this Outgrowing it might soon be over. The rise of the leading interest in the USA about 25 base points at the end of June marked the long announced interest turn. " This will give problems ", says David Milleker, expert of Dresdner bank and author of a study to the risks of overrated real-estate markets. Since rising leading interest transmits the banks to the consumers, credits become more expensive. " In the USA the favorable mortgage advances are not bound to the real estate ", says Milleker. " Everybody could finance in this way favorably consumer goods like refrigerators or televisions. Now this will happen rarer. " There, comes that banks expanded the favorable credits on the basis of the book value risen steadily as a rule of the real-estate afterwards. With the first signs of falling prices in the property market it runs vice versa: the banks want to go back the money, as soon as house or apartment are no more good as a security. If thereupon more house-owners sell, the offer of the market rises for own homes. " This is also the signal for speculators to sell fast ", says Milleker. Thus the offer pressure farther grows. At the same time sinks the inquiry of those prospective customers who recognize in view of rising interest that they get suddenly less house than planned for identical money. Indeed this does not lead necessarily to a sales panic. " But the effects can do themselves mutually for a massive collapse hochschaukeln ", says Milleker. (the best I could find)