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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (9479)	7/18/2004 12:56:03 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

It would seem there is a growing realization that the RE market is slowing down. That article indicated that economists are starting to wondering if the RE slowdown will impact other parts of the economy like consumer durables. They argued durables like TVs and refrigerators benefited from the boom and might suffer in reverse (i.e. RE bust). Of course, this thread has been speculating on the impact of a slowdown on the general economy for several months! From anecdotal evidence in SoCal, the RE boom is over. The next few reports will be very interesting. Typically RE has led the US into recession by 6 to 12 months. Will this slowdown also lead the US into recession? And what will be the impact considering interest rates are already at emergency levels and we have ZERO fiscal flexibility? Will deflation raise its ugly head? I have more questions than answer right now.