To: Skywatcher who wrote (16670 ) 7/18/2004 7:22:32 PM From: glenn_a Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194 Chris - re: the Flanigan article ... Hi Chris. Thanks for posting the article, but I must say I found it to be almost laughable (I don't mean this disrespectfully to yourself BTW, but rather because it is exactly the shoddy analysis I have come to expect from mainstream media - in this case the LA Times). Let's examine a few comments & assertions made by the article: 1 - "That sounds like the plot of a summer horror movie. And like all scary flicks, it's an exaggeration and distortion, with misleading words like "borrowed" littering the script " What on earth has this statement got to do with anything, other than to set an emotional context for supposedly factual analysis? There's a word for this type of reasoning, and it's called propaganda. 2 - ... it's important to remember that the main reason for the $500-billion trade deficit and much of the US debt is that the US economy is the engine of the world. It pulls developing countries into the modern economy by buying their imports and investing in their new industries. The U.S. started on this path in the aftermath of World War II, when it practically single-handedly financed Japan's economic recovery by purchasing its goods, and it has generally served this country well. OK, where to start with this one. Firstly, it seems to me far more of an ideological position that an analysis of the global financial economy or the U.S. position in it. The U.S. economy is the engine of the world? And what type of engine might that be exactly? Certainly not a production engine - that's being taken over in manufacturing by China and in services by India. Certainly not an energy "production engine" - the good 'ol USofA is no longer energy self-sufficient let alone an exporter. Oh I know, of course, the U.S. is the world's Consumption Engine. And to maintain this privileged role the very countries that the U.S. has so generously "pulled into the modern economy " is now vendor financing the U.S. Consumption Engine. Yes can't imagine why that would be a cause for concern about the U.S. economy or $. In fact, isn't this the very REASON that the U.S. is "running large budget deficits and huge trade deficits "? Hmmm, sounds like a pretty darned scary movie to me. 3 - "Remember something else: The government banks of China and Japan alone hold more that $700 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds and aren't interested in dumping them. Why? Because that would drive down the value of the U.S. dollar, and a strong dollar is key to their ability to export to U.S. consumers and industry " Unbelievable. So the argument is that without the good 'ol USA consumer, the whole world would just collapse. Therefore, China and Japan have a vested interest in forever asking their people to produce more than they consume, so that they can ship the fruits of their labor to America. If they ever stopped, it would be really bad, because then they might have to actually consume more of the fruits of their labor themselves, which they plainly would never want to do. The sterilization of US dollars by foreign central banks must inevitably have a limit. At some point, there could very easily be a mad scramble to spend these $'s accumulated by foreign banks while they still have a modicum of purchasing power. I believe China is presently using some of its surplus of US$ to build stockpiles of energy and raw materials. Also, the argument ignores pressures on the cost input side of the equation. 4 - Absolutely no mention is made of total outstanding credit to GDP, or the consequences of an impending normalization of U.S. interest rates. 5 - Oddly enough, the rest of the article states the case for why there is really reason to be a little worried. In fact, "Patterson says ... this can easily lead to a run on the dollar. Such runs have occurred, he notes, in four separate two-year periods in the last three decades. " But alas, don't worry, all will be well. After all "Fears are to be expected amid the rapid globalization of the U.S. economy in an interdependent world. But we should leave the horror stories to the movies. " In summary, an incredibly poor piece of analysis. Thanks for reminding me why I no longer turn to mainstream media for my news. Regards, Glenn