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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (9540)	7/19/2004 3:05:39 PM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Hey Mike. But how longer can the U.S. "control" its empire when its has nearly $40 trillion in outstanding credit, and it has serious structural twin deficits? This is the very problem all empires run into in their latter years. As Paul Kennedy himself would argue, the U.S. built its dominant position through its enormous productive capabilities, and the fact that it emerged with its industrial base intact after WWII. But now the U.S. is the world's largest creditor nation, with a serious fu*ed balance sheet, structural twin deficits, and remains a powerhouse economically largely through its enormous consumptive appetite. If it were simply a matter of military technology, I would agree the U.S.'s geopolitical dominance would remain far into the future. But the U.S. simply can no longer afford its lifestyle - and actually that includes its military lifestyle. Something's gotta give. The USA is still by far the world juggernaut economicly and militarily. Even the acess to our markets is a leverage tool noone can compete with* To an extent yes. But it is not a growth market in the same way for instance China and India are. The U.S.'s relative importance as an economic and military will decline over the next couple of decades IMO. The importance to access to U.S. consumer markets will shrink significantly - again IMO. As far the U.S. "controlling" Saudia Arabia, Korea, Eastern Europe, Great Britain, India, etc., well I certainly agree that at present and for the forseeable future the U.S. will assert much geopolitical influence. But you had pointed out, we are moving to a more "multi-polar" world of great power politics. I do not expect the U.S. to retain the degree of influence it currently wields 2 decades from now. In the meantime, the Great Game is played. :) Anyway, we obviously differ quite a bit in our perspectives. I grant that you may be correct in your assessment. Just want to present an alternative PoV. Regards, Glenn

To: marginmike who wrote (9540)	7/19/2004 4:05:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

How long will we control Iraq, Saudi Arabia, abd Eastern Europe? BTW Israel controls us not the other way around and we have suffered mightily for it IMO. Mish