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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (51667)	7/20/2004 7:07:18 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello elmat, You may be subscribing to the belief that inflation and high interest rate is good for the dollar, or you may be of the theory that a strong dollar is good for J6P. Or you may be just shuffling and shifting to gain off the energy of an unwinding of leverage. If we treat the hedge funds as the only leverage players, then your bet is a safer bet, but if we believe the whole of J6P homeland is a giant leveraged play, then your wager may not turn out, unless you are very sure and very fast at all the right times. Keeping the big picture in mind, we may in fact be getting closer to the day we can exit USD space completely. USD is a sell-on-bounce type of paper. I am enthusiastic that the USD rate should rise, as that would drive US coal to bargain levels, just in time for a ramp in coal of large proportions. I am equally happy about a ferocious rise in interest rate, even though I do not believe that is in the books for the US; a terrible tanking of USD is more likely instead, although that may not be imminent, because folks will not let it, and so ... There may not be anything to do at all for a considerable period ... or until this afternoon ;0/ I must think a bit, for just a moment, and it is not as if we hadn't been here before. Chugs, Jay