Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (16734)	7/20/2004 10:07:15 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Russ, don't you think that there are many signs that the consumer is rolling over?

To: russwinter who wrote (16734)	7/21/2004 3:40:10 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

russ, some comments from Lance Lewis' letter tonight. any thoughts? copper in Shanghai is trading at a discount to global benchmark in London, indicating that demand is extremely weak and supply is rather high (not to mention the fact that this also suggests that recent rallies in the likes of PD and other copper and base metals producers is likely a bit misguided to say the least). dailymarketsummary.com

To: russwinter who wrote (16734)	7/21/2004 9:31:17 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 21, 2004)—The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 16. The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications - a measure of mortgage loan applications - was 617.9, a decrease of 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 643.9 one week earlier, the holiday-shortened, July 4th week. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 19.9 percent compared with last week but was down 50.5 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 6.1 percent to 440.3 from 468.8 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index decreased by 0.7 percent to 1651.1 from 1662.4 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity included the Conventional Index, which decreased 3.8 percent to 908.7 from 945.0 the previous week. The Government Index decreased 6.2 percent to 132.8 from 141.6 the previous week. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 37.1 percent of total applications from 35.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 31.3 percent of total applications from 31.5 percent the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.96 percent from 5.95 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.32 from 1.35 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.34 percent from 5.36 percent one week earlier, with points increasing to 1.38 from 1.23 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs remained at 3.93 percent, with points increasing to 1.12 from 1.06 from the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

To: russwinter who wrote (16734)	7/21/2004 1:02:33 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

Russ, speaking of foreclosures, I stumbled across this HUD link that is very interesting. Unfortunately, it appears their most recent report is April. hud.gov As you may know, HUD/FHA loans have limits. For Southern Cal, I think it is around $290,000. Needless to say, FHA has few foreclosures here. Looking at the nation, especially in markets where FHA loans are more common, it appears that foreclosures had been climbing steadily for quite some time. Work outs are not all that successful. I believe FHA represents the lowest tier of home ownership and therefore the first link to the chain. On the way up, we need first time buyers to move into this market so the previous first time buyers can move up the chain, starting the appreciation motor in action. Of course, it also works in reverse. I don't follow the new home builders that much but I suspect cancellations, be it voluntary or involuntary, should be the next to sky rocket. Ramsey