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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5067)	7/23/2004 2:30:53 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 5867

Counterpoint: IC forecasts in the 'dead zone' By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 07/23/2004, 11:00 AM ET It never ceases to amaze me, but high-level chip executives often ask reporters like me about the future outlook of the semiconductor industry. Usually, I give executives the standard answer: I am only a reporter, who is simply an objective observer of the industry. In reality, I have no insight and rely on the experts for analysis. So where are we in the cycle? G. Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research Inc. (Santa Clara, Calif.), believes the market caught in a 200/300-mm transition. "We're in a dead zone," he said. "In our view the industry is caught between a surge in 200-mm buying that began in late 2003/early 2004 and a surge in 300-mm buying that should see orders placed predominantly in the fourth quarter," added Robert Maire, an analyst with Needham & Co. Inc. (New York). Maire said fab-tool growth is slowing, because semiconductor companies are in the process of absorbing large volumes of 200-mm equipment that has recently been shipped. This, in turn, has caused a slight pause for 300-mm equipment buys, he said. I myself can't resist, so I'll give you my take. The industry is slowing, but should heat up slightly by year's end. Nothing to write home about: Look for 22.7 percent growth in the semiconductor industry in 2004 and zero percent in 2005. Also look for 40 percent growth in fab equipment in 2004 and minus 10 percent in 2005. Peter Clarke, News Director for Silicon Strategies, is slightly more bullish. He believes that the IC industry will grow 28-30 percent in 2004 over 2003. Clarke refuses to give a prediction for 2005, saying he simply doesn't know. That's the best prediction I've heard all week.