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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5070)	7/22/2004 2:52:39 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5867

Compare the two in bold UPDATE - Overproduction puts chip makers on 'yellow alert' Thursday July 22, 2:02 pm ET By Daniel Sorid SAN FRANCISCO, July 22 (Reuters) - Stockpiles of unsold chips have ballooned to their highest level in a year, a study released on Wednesday shows, suggesting that chip makers may have to slash prices quickly to avoid costly write-offs. Failure to cut back production despite surprisingly weak sales in June led surplus inventories to swell to $827 million by the end of the second quarter from just $12 million three months earlier, research firm iSuppli Corp. reported. The figures, which measure chip supplies beyond what is needed to avoid disruptions, include inventory held by distributors, contract manufacturers, retailers, and chip makers themselves. While chip makers' recovery remains on track, the oversupply "should serve as a yellow alert for the industry," the research group said. A mammoth build-up of chip stockpiles three years ago compounded the industry's worst-ever slump. Chip makers have again reported spikes in inventory levels, stoking fears of a repeat performance. Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - News) last Tuesday said its inventories were at an all-time high, pushing its stock down 10 percent the following day. The one-day sell-off knocked nearly $18 billion off of Intel's market value, according to Reuters data. Chip makers usually build up inventories between April and the end of June, the weakest stretch of business, but appear to have gone too far this year. Intel and Altera Corp. (NasdaqNM:ALTR - News), a maker of programmable chips that took a whopping $150 million excess inventory charge in 2001, built up stocks by 15 percent and 8 percent, respectively, in the second quarter, citing strong demand later in the year. Texas Instruments, the world's largest maker of chips for cell phones, saw inventories rise 11.9 percent in the quarter ended in June. "Swelling inventory at suppliers represents a step in the wrong direction for the semiconductor industry," iSuppli analyst Rosemary Farrell wrote. "This will spur a softening of semiconductor prices in many categories in the third quarter." The research firm, which tracks supply issues, has not lowered its forecast for 24.4 percent growth in worldwide semiconductor revenue this year. Steady demand in the second half of the year should ease inventory levels, the group said. Moreover, the problem is not nearly as severe as three years ago. Chip inventory levels peaked at $13 billion in the first quarter of 2001, in a miscalculation of demand. That doesn't mean that the issue is a small one. J.P. Morgan analyst Christopher Danely wrote on Thursday that inventories in the communications equipment supply chain is building, threatening to hurt companies like Altera.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5070)	7/23/2004 1:46:13 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

while LRCX continues to be mediocre. I believe L.A.M. (Left Applied Materials) management has turned LRCX into a one product cash cow. As I watch Bagley cash in millions each week, I realize the strategy really works for him, but, I suspect it will not work so well for long term investors. It is just great for today's momentum traders. Bottom line: LRCX seems to etch more than NVLS can deposit - think about it: PVD electroplating and last not least CVD there's been always an arrogance of the people who deposit the film relative to the people who etch the film