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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (9701)	7/22/2004 4:55:19 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Henry Blodget lost money in 2000: I greedily shoveled $700,000 into in February and March of 2000, minutes before the bubble burst. Most of these funds have essentially gone to zero. I would love to say I lost this money because I was swindled. Alas, I lost it because, in hindsight, I was a moron. ... for an aggressive investor, the risk of not being invested in the Internet approached the risk of being invested in it and that I would rather invest and lose than not invest at all. slate.msn.com slate.msn.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (9701)	7/22/2004 9:24:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Soapbox From a post by Delighted on the FOOL and my reply follows: Where are crude-oil prices headed? If you ask some experts who follow energy-market fundamentals, they'll tell you that they have room to move even higher. But technical analyst Jack Adkins, director of quantitative strategy in North America for Action Economics, has a different view. He thinks charts that track price patterns for crude show that oil prices are about to fall precipitously. businessweek.com; A major event happens and crude goes up only .50! To that I say bulls**t However I can not rule out a drop to $28 either. The $CRB in general is falling and has a long way to go. Look at this enormous H&S pattern. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pc50!c200][vc60][iUh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G Rat you got an opinion on that chart and is it the same as mine? Is oil and gold and silver last year's trade that everyone is still clinging to? If the $CRB hits its H&S pattern there is no way oil and copper and lumber do not get crushed. I have to admit there are things I absolutely do not undersand and never will. Housing is stalling and lumber is up lock limit. WTF? Take a look at this nonsense futuresource.com I sure do recall what happened when silver went like that. I also do not understand it with housing turning down. Does anyone here now doubt that housing is cooling off? OK except for Androcles. Now what? Are we looking at sucker rallies in gold and silver and copper and oil and total nonsense in lumber? Is shady right about oil? Oil is tough because the risk of a MAJOR disaster is to the upside but I think the author of the article is correct, the risk of minor disasters are more than priced in. Bear in mind my long term prognosis has not changed, but I really sense that stagflation is going to change to deflation rather quickly and that will affect all kinds of things including oil. Commodities very well could be YESTERDAY'S play. The stock markets are breaking down and this thread is still looking at oil and gold and silver and god knows what else. Perhaps we should be looking at commodities to short. Lumber, copper, oil? Yikes on the latter and perhaps even the latter 2, but what left is there for lumber? My long term views on oil, gold, and silver have not changed, but I think I would rather go long when things are perfect. Seasonality does not favor either silver or gold here IMO (but that does not mean they can not rise). Seasonality will be favorable to those in perhaps a month or two. In the meantime I am out and if they rise without me so be it. I hope they plunge. Most of the gold minor charts except NEM look like total crap so who needs em? Now I do not want to get overly bearish after a huge downdraft on stocks either, but shorting bounces and stepping aside has been working for some time. IF this is the BIG C or BIG 3 EWAVE down, there is plenty more room left to fall. I think stocks will likely suck for another year, interspersed with bear rallies. Why not? Prediction: (and most are admittedly worthless) We are about to unwind the last year and 1/2. Interestingly enough bonds may have already done that and IF deflation is setting in, they are a scorching buy after the next hike. Of course we are facing Heinz's call of no more hikes vs Greenspans testimony of everything is rosy, the markets can stand massive hikes, inflation is low, there is no risk of deflation, and the recovery is self sustaining. You pay your money and you take your chances. Comments appreciated. Mish