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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (18550)	7/22/2004 8:28:18 PM
From: Ken Reidy	Respond to of 19219

JT, My eyes are wide open. Since March of 2003, The Dow is up 35.5%, the XAU is up 39.3% and the HUI is up 64.5% The main reason all three are up is because the dollar has fallen from 102.15 to 88.39. In Euro terms, the DOW is basically unchanged since March of 2003. In Yen terms, the Dow is up a little since March of 2003 only due to Japanese intervention to weaken their own currency. I do not disagree that a new all time high in the Dow is possible. My point is it will probably take a lower dollar to make it happen. With a lower dollar....you get higher inflation. The next time the Dow hits 11,750....it won't buy you nearly what Dow 11,750 bought you last time. So why spend so much time and effort hoping to keep pace with inflation? Due to the massive debt in this country....that is the best you can hope for from paper investments such as stocks and bonds. The paper era is over. Commodities and hard assets will be the next investment category to outperform as the government can't print them up in unlimited quantities. Take a look at copper for example...supplies running out and demand increasing due to China, etc. It seems so obvious to me. I may be wrong but we all have to reach our own conclusions. Best of luck. I truly do wish you well.