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To: mishedlo who wrote (291538)	7/22/2004 5:28:52 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 436258

fleck tonight: One of the key issues that I have talked about from a micro standpoint, i.e., the buildup of inventories in technology, is also likely to be a problem across the economy, especially if companies like General Motors, Ford, and Caterpillar are any indication. When you have a lot of inventory building and then demand slows, you have a real problem, as the next thing that tends to happen is a cut in production. I believe that we are just "one bad data point in July (or August)" from shattering the "blip" thesis and getting people to understand that we are about to experience the "next time down," the scenario that I outlined in my New York speech and repeatedly in the Rap. I think that it's time to be on red alert, because any sign of weakness could turn what has been an orderly stock market decline into an all-out rout.