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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5080)	7/23/2004 10:49:14 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 5867

Summary of Comments. Below I've taken what I think are the key comments about LRCX that you posted in longer form on the Weinerstrom forum. Let me know if I missed any. I can't seem to find the bears and even Fitz seems like a giddy bull compared to what he normally writes. 4:36PM Lam Research beats by $0.11, ex items : Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $0.37 per share, ex items, $0.11 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 42.6% year/year to $329.6 mln vs the $297.6 mln consensus. 7/22/04: ThinkEquity Partners LLC Upgrading LRCX to a Buy - Confounding skeptics that equipment suppliers cannot grow from cycle to cycle, Lam should achieve its highest EPS ever of over 60c in FQ1 (vs... 48c in the peak of last cycle). We believe there is still significant operating leverage and that we are still in the early stages of the cycle. For now we are maintaining our $40 price target, noting that this assumes only a 16x multiple on annualized current quarter`s estimates (excluding cash). Historically, LRCX has commanded a 25 multiple, lending upside to our price target.. 7/22/04: UBS Securities LLC Reit Buy 2 - Lam reported impressive 4Q04 results. EPS of $0.37 was 48% higher than guidance of $0.25 (consensus: $0.26; UBS: $0.25), driven by higher than expected revenues and lower than forecast SG&A. Revenues grew 43% Q/Q, exceeding guidance of 30%. Orders increased 17% Q/Q, above the guidance range of 10 to 15%. We are increasing our estimates to reflect a higher revenue level, and sooner than expected ramp up in margins. Our new EPS estimates are $1.72 in CY-04 (prev.$1.12) and $1.55 in CY-05 (prev. $1.36). On a fiscal year basis, our EPS estimate for FY-05 is $2.40 (prev. $1.60 7/22/04: Smith Barney Citigroup LRCX: Reit Buy-High - FQ4:04 (June) very strong with EPS $0.37 well above ours and consensus $0.26, driven by upside on nearly every P&L item including 10% to revenue and 150bps to gross margin. Orders $408MM (+17% Q/Q) or better than guidance and our model with guidance +5%, in line with our preview and slightly better than peers thus far.- Continue to see orders growing through year-end with memory serving as the anchor, but customer forecasts getting lumpy - particularly from foundry customers.- Backlog being worked down near historic lows driving big upside to revenue. While this drives estimates up, it also reduces visibililty going forward. Net/net, continue to see LRCX under-appreciated and under-valued with "fair value" in mid $30`s given "cross cycle" earnings of $2.00 in a more muted cyclical downturn. Maintain Buy (1H) and $35 price target 7/22/04: Banc of America: Mark FitzGerald: Lam Research’s fourth quarter bookings increased 16.6% q/q, ahead of expectations, the analysts add. Banc of America Securities expresses its optimism regarding the company’s new business model. FitzGerald's EPS estimate for FY05 has been raised from $1.37 to $2.36. (EPS upgraded 72%!) FitzGerald has a price target of $30.70 on shares of Lam.