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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (9723)7/23/2004 11:30:49 AM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116555
 
We are headed into K-winter.

Message 20337295

Deflation, take two. If the season plays out as usual, it should take another ten years or so to work down global debt levels. If we are lucky, serious sociopolitical damage will be avoided. Slowly, gradually, we should begin to accumulate commodities (or short bond positions) over the next decade, for what should be a long run of commodity price gains - through the eventual Spring and Summer seasons.

But yes, for now, staying light on commodities would be wise IMO.

BC



To: mishedlo who wrote (9723)7/23/2004 2:07:54 PM
From: Proud Deplorable  Respond to of 116555
 
Today is looking bad but its really looking like a typical summer. I'm keeping my shares as I expect the Fall will bring back the buyers as is typical, did I say typical?

I'll go eat some popcorn to show my support for your investment.

Don't be so sure lumber is going to fall because of US housing starts being down. Remember there is a shift to Asia away from America which in the next decade will be unseated as top dog, and I DO mean dog!



To: mishedlo who wrote (9723)7/23/2004 2:15:20 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 116555
 
>>Everyone is talking higher oil prices now.
Everyone.<<

nuts -- everyone I talk to says its a top. Not only that, many believe that the price is subject to the administration and at the appropriate time they can "simply pull the right lever" bring oil down and goose the market as high as they want.

The OSX has run in to serious trouble -- so that augurs well for a selloff -- but I wouldn't go shorting crude. Leave that to the pros (those who can afford to lose it).