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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (9726)	7/23/2004 12:04:36 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

this is what the talking heads are saying Message 20339252 they said the same also a week ago. Furhter some of them claim that the USD is bottoming. Something is very wrong IMHO BWDIK

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (9726)	7/23/2004 1:25:06 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

Your logic make sense to me but it may be we are both wrong - PERIOD. Why? because the value of fiat money is relative and CB's control the FX rates if by intervention or by talk etc. – the issue of true free markets are an illusion and some times spurts in the right direction gives us the sense of “free markets” but they are not – and this includes all major financial markets GOLD is way undervalued but that does not stop the metal to go down if the USD goes up. In case of gold consumption is increasing and not all gold is recovered and sources are limited, but CB's sell gold to keep it's price low and fool people all around the world. NO matter how much one would argue and present various evidences the fact is that the "financial elite" is in control, the same way they settled the LTCM debacle or the S&L crisis or any other financial collapse. As long as people believe in fiat money and refer to it as a store of value fiat money will prevail at exchange rate dictated and not driven by markets. There are way to many uneducated people around the world who take the word of the CB's as fact and do not question any more. Think about the fact that after age 55 most professionals are pushed out of their practice if an accountant, attorney or banker and for sure after age 60 he is forced to retire, for no other reason than age, but the FED has as his Chairman a 80 or so year old individual whose ability is more political adaptation than anything else. Just wonder were AG personal responsibility lies and were his Consciousness is that he still holds on this chair, instead of retiring gracefully after 2 terms at the helm of the FED IN summary with time the market will realize the real value of gold and the real value of certain currency ….. but then again with time we are all dead … (I still hold a substatial USD loan against the EUR since the 0.86- 0.90 EUR/USD level - but can not be as proud of the trading account with all the eratic movements) Next, Rogers is bearish on the dollar. Huge federal deficits will make foreigners wary of holding assets in the U.S. -- which reduces demand for dollars. And the current administration has a policy of letting the dollar drift down to spur exports. Rogers is also bearish on bonds -- partly because interest rates are headed back up, but also because the high level of government debt worries fixed income investors. Finally, he’s leery of the U.S. stock market. True, stocks may hold up through the election. But 2005 and 2006 will be bad years for equities, he predicts. That’s because the recovery will sputter soon after the elections, and there’s not much room to provide even more stimulus. The Federal Reserve has little leeway to cut interest rates. And the federal government has no more room to borrow and spend to spur growth. "The government has shot its wad," says Rogers. One way Rogers is betting on over stock market weakness: short positions in money management firms. -- Charley Blaine and Kim Khan moneycentral.msn.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (9726)	7/23/2004 1:44:09 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

.... and keep in mind that the value of the US stock market is more or less same as the value of the USD - but the market still holds up for the last 5 years - why ? because they are printing fiat money endlessly and the majority of the people believe in it's value – to many people depend on this scam and make a living from this and therefore it will stay afloat for along time - it is a conceptual way of living and those things do not change fast it takes a major crisis or few generation to make such changes BWDIK