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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (9770)	7/23/2004 6:48:16 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Housing: Next week might give us our first glimpse of the housing slowdown showing up in government numbers. New Homes Sales for June, reported on Tuesday, is the number to watch. I think the slowdown started in earnest towards the end of June, so this New Home Sales report will probably still be OK. Existing Home sales are reported at the close of escrow, so these "June" numbers are really sales in April and May. I expect existing home sales to be strong. On Thursday we get the 2nd quarter housing report from the census bureau. These numbers can be interesting, especially the rising vacancy rates and non-occupied dwellings (speculation?). census.gov It is difficult to predict the peak in any market until a few months after it occurs. But anecdotal evidence is piling up to indicate housing has peaked. Of course there could be another bond rally and another wave of buying in RE ... but I doubt it.