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Politics : Discuss the candidates honestly. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonto who wrote (2194)	7/25/2004 8:19:50 AM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4965

THE VANISHING BOUNCE: Disturbing news for Kerry Sunday, July 25, 2004 Friday, July 23 2004 from http.//.www.realpolitics.com THE VANISHING BOUNCE: Big poll day yesterday, with some really disturbing news for John Kerry. As you can see from the table below, of the four new polls released yesterday afternoon/evening Kerry lost ground to Bush in three of them and is now back to dead even in the three-way race: Poll Date 3-Way Results Net Chg vs. Last Poll Fox News 7/20-7/21 Bush +1 Kerry +6 NBC/WSJ 7/19-7/21 Bush +2 Bush +1 CNN/Gallup/USAT 7/19-7/21 Kerry +1 Bush +4 LA Times 7/17-7/21 Kerry +2 Bush +4 Bottom line: on the eve of the Democratic convention the bounce from the Edwards pick two and a half weeks ago has come and gone. The fact Kerry couldn't maintain a even a small lead heading into the DNC has to have his staff (and Bush-haters everywhere) reaching for the Pepto. The other important number, Bush's overall job approval, is rising slightly as well: Poll Date Current Approval Chg vs.Last Poll Fox News 7/20-7/21 47: -2 NBC/WSJ 7/19-7/21 48 +3 CNN/Gallup/USAT 7/19-7/21 49 +2 LA Times 7/17-7/21 51 nc Our RCP average, which includes all of these current polls along with Rasmussen, shows Bush ticking up to an even 49% approval. Again, not good news for Kerry heading into the convention. Those favoring John Kerry seem to be taking heart at some of the internals in these polls. Check out the reaction over at Daily Kos and Donkey Rising. It's funny, if not a little bit pathetic, that the poll analysis we get from Ron Brownstein in the LA Times this morning differs little from the spin at those partisan web sites. And let's not forget to mention this laugher from the AP earlier in the week: New Poll Smiles on Kerry Despite Tie, Momentum is With Democrat The Associated Press Updated: 7:13 p.m. ET July 21, 2004 NANTUCKET, Mass. - John Kerry is heading to his party’s national convention with Democrats faring better with the public on both domestic and international issues, according to a poll released Wednesday. But Kerry remains locked in a tie in the presidential race. In addition to being eerily prescient, John's post from yesterday was dead on. The press is almost openly rooting for Kerry and the Democrats, after getting a boost from the primary process coupled with the continued struggle in Iraq and a small bounce from the Edwards pick, are finally believing for the first time they have a chance to win. Both continue to interpret the deadlocked race in the best possible way for John Kerry and ignore any evidence indicating there is another side to the coin: the deadlock may actually display an underlying strength for Bush. With the vaunted veep bounce having already evaporated into the ether, the pressure on Kerry to deliver a big convention this week just increased dramatically. He and his fellow Dems need to hit it out of the park. Otherwise, they will find themselves in the unenviable position of trying to come from behind after Labor Day. Most likely, this means Kerry will need either 1) a knock out in the debates (something that rarely happens, even despite Gore's implosion in 2000) or 2) some unpredictable event like a terrorist attack (which is more likely to cause a rally for Bush) or 3) Iraq to descend into complete and utter chaos or 4) an October Surprise of some kind involving Bush and/or prominent members of his administration. These poll results confirm what I have been seeing for the past several weeks. The trend is Bush's friend.