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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65847)7/25/2004 2:09:23 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
Hmm. History says that if a Democrat is elected over an incumbent Republican, the stock market does not perform as well the following years relative to how it would have performed had the incumbent Republican been elected. That's just statistics.

However, in this case, since many people are convinced that Bush is causing world instability, maybe the markets will react as if a peace dividend had been granted if Kerry gets elected. I'm not sure if the markets will do better whether Kerry or Bush is elected. However, I'm betting the markets will do great through Jan and through 2005, if we can get either one elected without a terrorist attack within the U.S.

Either way, I am convinced the market will continue to drift lower through the end of October. There's simply too high a probability of a successful terrorist attack before the election. Add to that a season typical of a low market and I think it's a no brainer. If I was a shorting person, then I'd short from here. But since I'm a LTBH investor, I have been building up a large cash pile, which I'll invest right after the election.



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65847)7/27/2004 8:26:10 AM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
I'm sure you know there is a whole group of people out there who think a Kerry win will cause the markets to rally, I am one of those people

And this is because a friendship with Jacques Chirac will make the terrorists go away? Or because a "better" diplomat will cause the terrorists organizations to respect the USA? These people hated us under Clinton too. Why will a Kerry presidency suddenly change them?

What exactly is your reasoning?

It appears extremely naieve, and that is being very kind.



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65847)7/27/2004 10:23:37 AM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
 
Lizzie, RE: I'm sure you know there is a whole group of people out there who think a Kerry win will cause the markets to rally, I am one of those people

And it is entirely possible that you'll be right.

The main reason that you'll be right, though, is because beforehand the markets will tank in discounting a Kerry presidency.