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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davidtrx who wrote (26613)	7/26/2004 3:20:23 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

Likelihoods, Probabilities, and Possibilities ... David, << Given a strong likelihood of a decline in NOK below $10, you may wish to limit further additions to your position to dips below $10. >> I may make that decision, but then again I may not. At the moment my next GTC limit buy has been placed at $10.85. That can of course be nudged up or down and it may be. I'll be watching tech index movement, sector movement, and legitimate Nokia news as opposed to potentially misinformed Nokia speculation from these message boards, journalists, and what I consider to be the less informed research analysts. At below $10 - should we see it - I'll back up the truck. What you consider a "strong likelihood" I consider a possibility, and we all pick our own entry points, exit points and reduction points, and live with the consequences. I will likely enter Q4 with a larger NOK position than I hold today. I will make decisions in between Monaco, Cannes, Hannover, and CTIA 2005 in New Orleans about whether I reduce or hold beyond that, based on what is revealed as Nokia slowly peels back the kimono. We are in the dog days, and a period when the European carriers are vacationing which means we won't get a lot of legitimate visibility about where various vendors sit with IOT for new and unannounced 2.5G/2.75G/3G models, or expansion of 3G CAPEX for 2005 on the network side. Here in the US, Cingular is keeping a tight lid on their timetable for nationwide EDGE implementation, T-Mobile on EDGE implementation in key markets, and AWS isn't leaking plans for expanding its EDGE handset lineup. None are going to make a lot of noise till they have a respectable multi-vendor handset lineup and underlying services. Multi-vendor or not, Nokia has a significant EDGE edge, and EDGE in the Americas and worldwide has a bright and rosy future ahead of it. Nokia bad news is out, although some may not appreciate the gravity of their Q3 warning. Likewise some don't appreciate the subtle but positive news about the software platforms underlying Series 40 and Series 60 products, and what may lie beyond, or how they have reacted internally to some uncharacteristically poor strategic decisions made in 2002, and early 2003. As they always do, analysts will play a role in guiding investor sentiment. Part of their frustration of late, and it includes those that have made the pilgrimage to Helsinki in the last 3+ months to take Nokia's temperature, is that Nokia is playing it very close to the vest relative to sharing specific new product plans, and the software underpinnings of same. Despite that, in varying degrees most of the research analysts that I most respect, feel that fundamentals and intrinsic value are intact, and that Nokia's multitude of core competencies along with normally well developed capability to make strategic decisions will help them make the transition from 2.5G to 3G and retain handset market leadership in share and margin, narrow the gap with Ericsson in infra, and make strides in services. T Michael Walkley chimed in this morning after meeting with new Nokia CFO, Rick Simonson, but I haven't read the complete research note yet, just this abstract: >> Nokia Upgraded to "Outperform" Piper Jaffray New York New Ratings July 26, 2004 Analyst T Michael Walkley of Piper Jaffray upgrades Nokia (NOK.NYS) to "outperform." The target price is set to $16. Shares of Nokia, a leading global telecom equipments company, are currently trading at $11.68. According to Piper Jaffray's research note published this morning, Nokia is poised to witness robust operating margins expansion and market share gains in its handsets business in 2005. The analyst mentions that the company is unlikely to witness any further deterioration in the operating margins at its handsets business beyond 3Q04. Piper Jaffray expresses its optimism regarding Nokia's successful execution of the initiatives to improve its product portfolio in the forthcoming quarters. The analyst expects Nokia to have enhanced its focus on improving its business relationships with the major telecom service providers. Moreover, Piper Jaffray expects the company to benefit considerably by next year from its upcoming handset models. However, Nokia's continued focus on retaining the handsets business market share is likely to adversely impact the company's near-term margins, the analyst says. Piper Jaffray considers the current valuation of Nokia's stock attractive for longer-term investors. << - Eric -