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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve dietrich who wrote (595802)	7/27/2004 8:35:07 AM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Respond to of 769670

Are Dems getting cocky about beating Bush? By Miles Benson, New York Times News Service. Miles Benson is a reporter for Newhouse News Service Published July 27, 2004 BOSTON -- The Democrats smell blood. Convinced that Republican George W. Bush is a wounded president who already may have lost his re-election race, many Democrats are giddy with excitement as they prepare to anoint Sen. John Kerry as their nominee. Even party leaders who warn against unwarranted overconfidence one moment say in the next that victory is in hand. "Everybody knows it's going to be tight ... but I think the odds are high--60-40--that Kerry will prevail," said convention Chairman Bill Richardson, governor of New Mexico. "Absent a mistake by us, Kerry's the next president," declared Bob Mulholland, a Democratic national committeeman and delegate from California. "Bush blew it in a myriad of ways," said Kentucky Democratic State Chairman Bill Garmer, listing job losses, the budget surplus swallowed by new deficits, and "a war that won't work because all the reasons put forth turned out not to be true." "It's more like it's ours to lose than to win now," said Harold Schaitberger, president of the International Association of Fire Fighters, as he arrived at a pre-convention party at Sen. Edward Kennedy's family compound in Hyannis, Mass. "I've never seen the party as energized, united and enthused." It's not unusual for political leaders to boast about their prospects at their party's national convention, but this year many Democrats appear to believe their own hype. The Democrats' cockiness is evident to independent observers and could be their downfall. "Most senior Democrats with whom I've talked believe the election is over," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "They think Bush is in a hole he can't climb out of and Kerry would have to make a terrible gaffe to lose. The data suggest they could be right, but there's that Truman exception out there," Sabato said, recalling Democrat Harry Truman's come-from-behind victory in 1948. "It would be incredible if Bush became the second Truman, but it's possible," Sabato said. Republicans insist the Democrats are dreaming. "The political graveyards are loaded with overconfident candidates and campaigns," Republican pollster Frank Luntz said. "It's smarter for them to run scared than run arrogant." Democrats base their optimism on polling that shows the president's approval rating sagging below 50 percent. Kerry is slightly ahead when voters are asked their preference, but growing unease over the Iraq war and the economy, which Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicts will be the "twin towers" of Bush's collapse, may control the outcome of the election. Also buoying Democrats is their unity and Kerry's unprecedented fundraising success, which has sharply reduced a customary Republican advantage. Even party leaders who say they are confident of victory admit it is a dangerous notion to have before their candidate is even formally nominated. "I expect we'll win this election just as we should have won the last one," said Mike Erlandson, Minnesota state party chairman. But McAuliffe said he has no illusions that the Democrats have this election in the bag. Asked if he thinks Bush already has lost, he offered a one-word reply: "No."