U.S. expatriates get out the vote
By Ellen Hale, USA TODAY
As moviegoers filter out of the Screen on the Hill theater in this lush residential area of London, Judy Miara launches her pitch: "Are there any Americans here? Are you registered to vote?"
Of the dozens who have just seen Michael Moore's record-setting anti-war film, Fahrenheit 9/11, three approach. Miara explains the absentee-voting process, helps them fill out the registration form and even provides the stamp.
"We got an Ohio and a Texas," says Miara, a banker who has lived in London for nine years. "That's really good."
If passions over the U.S. presidential race are at boiling point back home, they may be even higher abroad, where many Americans say they experience firsthand the ramifications of President Bush (news - web sites)'s foreign policies. Whether they approve of those policies or not, by all accounts, U.S. citizens overseas are registering in greater numbers than ever before, hoping their vote can make a difference in an election both sides say may be the most crucial in modern American history.
More than three months before the elections, Democrats Abroad, the group for which Miara works, claims it has helped register 8,000 American voters in Britain. In the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore (news - web sites) and Bush, the group registered fewer than 7,000 U.S. citizens. Worldwide, it is setting similar records, according to Frances Deak, 68, who has lived in Britain for 23 years and is in charge of the organization's global efforts. Republicans also expect to see an increase in interest among expatriate voters.
"They're lucky we're not a state," Deak says of Americans living outside the USA. If they were, expatriate Americans could make up the 13th-largest. While the number of U.S. citizens living abroad is not officially tallied, estimates range from 3 million to 7 million. It is believed that about 250,000 live in Britain. That makes the United Kingdom third to Mexico and Canada as the foreign country most populated by Americans.
'Expats feel estranged'
Two million to 3 million expatriates are eligible voters, says Steven Hill, senior analyst for the non-partisan Center for Voting and Democracy in San Francisco. The race is expected to be so tight in some states, such as Ohio, that expats could help determine the victor.
Traditionally, Americans abroad have not voted in large numbers. Rumors that their ballots are not counted or get lost keep some away. Cumbersome registration and voting procedures deter others. Under law, Americans abroad must register with the state in which they most recently resided. Guidelines vary with each state.
It is estimated that about 30% of U.S. citizens overseas vote. (Overall turnout in the 2000 presidential election was more than 50%.) About 70% of military personnel do, says Claire Taylor, an American living in the Netherlands. Taylor recently set up a non-partisan online site, www.tellanamericantovote.com, to get non-Americans to tell their U.S. friends to vote.
"A lot of times, expats feel estranged from life in the United States," Taylor says. "But we have a unique point of view of our country that needs to be heard because we are confronted daily with the effects of U.S policies abroad."
The harrowingly narrow 2000 elections appear to have dispelled expats' notions of estrangement. The Florida race, which Bush won by a razor-thin margin of 537 votes to claim the presidency, may have been decided by absentee overseas ballots. Dramatizing the impact of the expat vote even further was the controversy over military ballots that arrived postmarked beyond the acceptable deadline but were counted anyway, according to Hill. Analysis has shown that if not for the overseas absentee ballots, Gore would have won by 202 votes.
In April, former vice president Dan Quayle (news - web sites) rallied Republicans in Berlin to work harder to register voters abroad. Quayle claimed absentee ballots "turned the tide in Florida." Timothy Spangler, head of the British chapter of Republicans Abroad, says the group is building on the base it set up in 2000, when Republicans realized early on that voters abroad might play a decisive role.
Spangler doesn't know how many voters his organization has registered, but he says, "There are much stronger levels of commitment than I observed in 2000. The issues are being taken incredibly seriously, on both sides. People here think the stakes of this election are extraordinarily high."
More registering to vote
This time, overseas Democrats appear to be taking a page from the Republican handbook. In Italy, where there are about 67,000 Americans, Democrats Abroad has launched several new chapters. The Rome chapter has registered about 300 voters, compared with 50 in 2000.
"People just seem adamant about voting this time," says Yolanda Bernardini of the group's Rome chapter. "They're panicky and frantic."
In Britain, volunteers staff the movie lines at Fahrenheit 9/11 showings and scout out schools and other haunts where expat Americans are likely to be found. They even set up shop in Piccadilly Circus two weeks ago when former president Bill Clinton (news - web sites) was in London to sign copies of his autobiography.
"People are coming out of the woodwork," says Margo Miller, a lawyer here who works for Democrats Abroad. "People who haven't voted in decades are contacting us to register. "
"I didn't vote last time, and I'm not big on the Democrats, but I think these guys in power now are out of control and a threat to our civil liberties in their messianic pursuit of a goal," says Alan Hirzel, 37, a management consultant who has lived in London for five years. Hirzel, from Ohio, was a prize recruit for Miara.
Wisdom holds that the expatriate vote overwhelmingly goes Republican, by a ratio of about 3-to-1. The large number of military and government workers and executives who live abroad traditionally vote Republican, according to Robert Pingeon of Republicans Abroad in France.
Republican expats will vote because they are "fed up with the steady stream of anti-Bush propaganda from the European press," Pingeon says.
Hill agrees that the polarizing nature of the campaign is likely to bring out more voters.
"More civilians are voting this time because people are upset," says Hill. "It makes sense that the military vote may be more up for grabs this time because military families overseas are concerned about their loved ones being sent to Iraq (news - web sites)."
"They always say the overseas vote is Republican," says Robert Checkoway, a copywriter in the Netherlands and a Democrats Abroad volunteer. "But this time I think everyone is in for a big surprise." |
