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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (26627)	7/29/2004 6:55:41 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

IDC on Q2 Handsets I recently guestimated Q2 handset shipments at 154 million units: That was 4 million higher than Gartner's 'preliminary' Q2 estimate: Nokia's price-cutting plan already helped the company overcome market share loss in the first quarter, said Wood, citing the company's market share rise in the second quarter to 30%, up from 28.9% in the first quarter. Isuppli chimed in a few days back with an estimate of 155 million units shiped Q2, up 1.6 percent from 152.5 million units in the first quarter, with Nokia retaining the 29.3 percent market share it held in the first quarter according to their overall estimates which were lower than Gartners or Strategy Analytics: eetuk.com, IDC has just given a prelim and claims that 163.7 million units shipped Q2 (2.5% increase over the first quarter up 36.7% YoY) with a whopping 40.8 million units (24.95%) contributed by "others," outside the Top Six: tmcnet.com Top 5 Vendors, (Preliminary) Worldwide Shipments¹ and Share: 2Q 2004 · Vendor 2Q04 Units Market Share = ====== =========== ============ 1 Nokia 45,400,000 27.7% 2 Motorola 24,100,000 14.7% 3 Samsung 22,700,000 13.9% 4 Siemens 10,400,000 6.4% 4 Sony Ericsson 10,400,000 6.4% 5 LG Electronics 9,940,000 6.1% Other 40,800,000 24.9% =========== ====== Total 163,700,000 100.0% · ¹ Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales IDC offered these vendor highlights: * Nokia - Despite continuing to lead the worldwide mobile phone market with 27.7% market share, Nokia's slow growth compared to the overall market resulted in a drop in market share for the second consecutive quarter. Initial attempts at stabilizing shipments, however, do appear to be affecting change, as the company posted a year-on-year increase of 11.8% and a sequential growth of 1.6%. * Motorola - Although the success of a rejuvenated product line helped Motorola achieve a 52.4% year-on-year increase in shipments, the number 2 vendor still experienced a sequential drop of 4.7% during the second quarter of 2004. With number 3 Samsung close behind and gaining, the success of Motorola's new business and consumer-focused mobile phones are critical to its continued success in the market. * Samsung - Despite fierce competition in the U.S. market, Samsung posted impressive 76.0% year-on-year growth worldwide and a corresponding 1.3% increase in market share to 13.9%. With a number of new models planned for launch in the third quarter, Samsung is well-positioned to continue advancing on Motorola's number 2 spot. * Siemens - After a dramatic sequential drop of 18.8%, Siemens experienced a corresponding market share decrease of 1.7%. Although shipments did increase 28.4% year-on-year, Siemens must return to positive growth in order to protect its position as the number 4 vendor worldwide. * Sony Ericsson - Thanks to a strong shipment increase of 55.0% year-on-year and 18.2% sequentially, Sony Ericsson raised its market share 0.8% from the previous quarter to 6.4%, tying Siemens for the number 4 spot in the market. With a number of innovative new products scheduled for release in the latter half of the year, Sony Ericsson's recent surge may help the vendor claim the number 4 spot for its own. We'll now see what strategy Analytics has to say, followed by Gartner Dataquest in a month or so. Siemens reported today. Its mobile phones division generated $1.2 billion in sales on a volume of 10.4 million handsets, up from $1.19 billion and 8.1 million units in the same period a year earlier, but down sequentially, and the ASP for its handsets declined leading to a loss of $106 million for the quarter: tinyurl.com I'll wait for Gartner Dataquest final sell-through estimate, and in the interim will use iSuppli's 155 million handset shipments number in my estimates. I think price cuts in the lower end hit not only Motorola and Siemens but also the "others," at least as it regards sell through Moreover if the "others" shipped 40 million units in Q4 as estimated by IDC there is some excess inventory out there that will potentially impact their Q3 sell through. I could be a bit low on "others" but I think IDC is over the top. My revised estimates here: 1Q 2004 (Gartner) 2Q 2004 (Manufacturers) · Unit Market ¦ Unit Est.¹ Revenue Company Sales Share ¦ Sales Share Bil USD Margin ASP ======= ======= ====== ¦====== ===== ======= ====== ==== 1 Nokia° 44.2m 28.9% ¦ 45.4m 29.3% $6.157 13.0% $137 2 Motorola 25.1m 16.4% ¦ 24.1m 15.5% $3.883 10.2% $162 3 Samsung 19.1m 12.5% ¦ 22.7m 14.6% $4.004 16.0%² $176 4 Siemens 12.3m 8.0% ¦ 10.4m 6.7% $1.190 none $114 4 SEricsson 8.5m 5.6% ¦ 10.4m 6.7% $1.818 7.5% $175 6 LG 8.1m 5.3% ¦ 9.9m 6.4% $1.722 6.5% $173 Others 35.7m 23.3% ¦ 32.1m 20.7% $4.173 none ~$130 · ¹ Based on iSuppli's estimate of 155 million units shipped Q2 ² Samsung doesn't break out handset margin separately from infra ° Nokia composite sales of mobile devices above combines 3 divisions · Nokia Operating Operating Sales¹ Profit Margin ========== ============= ========= Mobile Phones EUR 4.167 Bil. EUR .797 Bil. 19.1%. Multimedia .739 Bil. (.74 Bil.) -10.0% Enterprise .189 Bil. (.59 Bil.) -31.2% -------------- --------------- ---------- Total EUR 5.095 Bil. EUR .664 Bil. 13.0% USD 6.157 Bil. USD .802 Bil. · ¹ Conversion at 6/30/2004 rate (1 EURO = 1.20850 US Dollar) · Nokia total mobile devices = 45.4m and ASP = EUR 113 or $136.89 USD Best, - Eric -