To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6763 ) 8/23/2004 4:18:26 AM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 12247 QCOM now into the $60bn range. Where does that leave us compared with "the big guys"? J P Morgan $130bn Cisco $140bn Intel $150bn Verizon $105bn IBM $145bn Citigroup $227bn GE $350bn Microsoft $300bn Federal National Mortgage $68bn Wal-Mart $230bn Exxon $297bn Well, there are a couple of banks, which will go the way of the dodo when they are replaced by person to person banking and cyberspace financial management and monetary movement. Exxon is in the big league, but as oil comes back to normal levels, they'll dwindle into the $100bn range and lower as competition builds. Intel, Microsoft, IBM and Cisco are primarily wired internet companies, which will be superseded by unwired cyberspace for mobility. Competition will whittle their margins as the wired world margins are competed away. Verizon is in a competitive service provider world where margins have been excessive for decades. Price wars should reduce service providers to utilities. There are plenty of options if a service provider won't offer reasonable prices. General Electric is a big beast but let's see what rising interest rates do to them. They have $9bn in debt and are as much a financial and insurance institution as a seller of engines and stuff. Speaking of engines, burning fossil fuels is really expensive these days and going out of fashion. I wouldn't think sales of engines would boom as much as in recent years. GE looks like an industrial revolution company with 1980s characteristics predicated on debt. Federal National Mortgage. Rising interest rates are likely to give mortgagees and borrowers a lot of sleepless nights and cause a decline in enthusiasm for debt and possibly a LOT of mortgagee sales of over-priced real estate. They've had 3 good years of world-record low interest rates. Now it's game over. Wal-Mart seems quite solid. People like shopping and Wal-Mart seems to do it right. But Sears and other big shopping styles have had various periods of pre-eminence and faded. That leaves: <American Express is at $63bn, Home Depot $73bn, Hewlett Packard $61bn, Johnson & Johnson $165bn, Coca Cola $106bn, MMM $65bn, Altria $96bn [what the heck are they?!!], Merck $100bn, Pfizer $245bn [wow!], Proctor & Gamble $138bn, SBC $84bn [who are they?], UPS $80bn > American Express will be disintermediated. Credit cards are no way to run a money system. Better to have a financial institution holding shares and other investments, and a debit card. It works for me, though I still use a NZ credit card. Hewlett Packard had their day with their calculators but are hanging in there. No real prospects for growth. Then there's soap, fizzy drink, freight, and chemistry. Not much excitement in that lot. They are so last century. It seems that QUALCOMM should soon be in the mega league. Which will be the world's first $1 trillion market cap company and when? That should challenge Jon [who won the last competition with a bulls-eye]. I say QCOM and I guess it will be 12 March 2010. Mqurice